For most of the past decade, Denver's championship hopes have hinged on finding enough talent to surround Nikola Jokic, a quest that produced Jamal Murray's rise as a sidekick, the 2021 trade for Aaron Gordon and the 2023 title fueled by Christian Braun and Bruce Brown. Two weeks into the new season, the Nuggets face a more alarming question: who are they when Jokic is not playing at an MVP level?
The concern is new because Jokic has been the NBA's most consistent star of the 2020s, finishing first or second in MVP voting for six straight seasons and leading the league in Player Efficiency Rating for six consecutive years. Still 31, he averaged a triple-double last season, topped ESPN's NBA Rank in September and said he plans to sign an extension next summer.
So far, the production has not matched the standard. Through seven games, Jokic is shooting 50.4 percent from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9 percent from 3-point range. His 26.1 PER is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, his 23.4 points per game are his fewest since 2019-20, and only 16 percent of his shots have come at the basket, a career low.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, and he dominated Wednesday's blowout of Toronto with 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists. Even so, he ranks sixth in PER and 15th in win shares after finishing first and second in those categories last season. "This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that's ever lived. I'll die on that sword," coach David Adelman said after Monday's loss to Portland.
The roster around him was not built to absorb slippage. Denver is 4-3, including 0-3 against teams with winning records, and heard boos at Ball Arena during the home opener, an overtime win over New Orleans. "I think those fans who booed us .. they're not welcome anymore," Jokic said. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season to injury, Cameron Johnson has underwhelmed, and a second unit led by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored regularly.
Denver's old formula, an elite offense masking a so-so defense, has wobbled. Despite a strong start from Murray, the offense ranked 11th entering Thursday; the Nuggets have not finished outside the top 10 since Jokic's rookie year. They sat 26th in points in the paint before the Toronto game and rank 28th in 3-point attempts. "It's too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray]," Adelman said. "I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves."
The cap crunch offers little relief. An extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years with a record $72 million average annual value, would put Jokic on the long-term books next to Murray and Gordon, both signed through 2028-29, with Braun's five-year, $125 million extension already kicking in. It would carry Jokic through his age-36 season; no center in recent memory has played at an MVP level that late.
There is no succession plan. Rookie Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise, but Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 champions, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
Milwaukee faced a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer and traded him to Miami to rebuild. Jokic has given no indication he wants out and could follow the Dirk Nowitzki model: the 2011 champion spent eight more seasons in Dallas without winning another playoff series. Denver has reason to reward his loyalty, but this season has shown the truth: Jokic can only mask the Nuggets' flaws when he plays like an MVP. When he does not, the plan falls apart.







