Prisoners leaving custody early to relieve overcrowding in England and Wales risk being left without shelter as colder weather arrives, charities and probation staff have warned. They say shortages of accommodation and support could undermine Andy Burnham’s ambition to end rough sleeping in England by Christmas, with another round of early releases scheduled for 10 November.
Tania Bassett, of the probation staff union Napo, said most housing options were already full following October’s early releases. One union member had been seeking accommodation for 10 people released on 1 October, while many staff described feeling overwhelmed. Bassett said there appeared to be an expectation that probation services could find homes despite the limited accommodation available.
James, 37, faces losing his temporary probation accommodation in Somerset in four days. Released from prison in August, he said he had sought help from MPs, solicitors, probation services and the council without securing somewhere to live. He has epilepsy and PTSD, among other medical conditions, and said Somerset council had refused him temporary accommodation and he had also been rejected for probation housing. The prospect of sleeping outside in November had left him considering getting recalled to prison.
His release conditions present another difficulty. James wears a GPS tag requiring a daily charge and an alcohol monitoring tag that must stay connected to a communication device. He said nobody had satisfactorily explained how he could meet those requirements without dependable electricity or a safe place for the equipment. Bassett warned that widespread homelessness would obstruct the government’s presumption that offenders released early should be electronically tagged.
Analysis by the Prison Advice and Care Trust, known as Pact, found that releases into rough sleeping rose by 130% over three years, from 6,040 in 2022-23 to 14,360 in 2025-26. Rough sleeping was recorded in approximately one in seven releases, against around one in 10 three years earlier. The share recorded as having no fixed abode, covering homelessness and rough sleeping together, increased from 11.3% to 15.9%.
Pact chief executive Andy Keen-Downs said the charity encountered people returning to prison every day after missing probation appointments while sleeping rough. Enver Solomon, chief executive of Nacro, said a prison he recently visited aimed to secure accommodation for 84% of those leaving, effectively accepting that 16% would be homeless. He said the government recognised the importance of the problem, but resolving it was taking time.
Keen-Downs welcomed Burnham’s ambition and £874m funding boost, but described insufficient funding for support after prison as a “fatal flaw”. He said accommodation needed to be accompanied by services that helped people reach it and remain housed. Bassett said Napo would press the chancellor to allocate some of the funding specifically to prisoners, warning that failing to do so would miss an opportunity to break the cycle.
Somerset council said it could not discuss individual cases. It said its statutory responsibilities included assessing the circumstances of people who were homeless or at risk, offering advice and support, and considering suitable accommodation. The council said it was committed to ending rough sleeping locally and preventing homelessness wherever possible.
The government said it was working with councils and charities on homelessness among prison leavers, supported by record probation investment. It said its Christmas objective was to offer people sleeping rough a route off the streets or wider support, and that specialist help remained available after temporary accommodation ended. It also cited prison work training and partnerships with hundreds of employers to help people move into jobs on release.
