The 13-year wait for a new Grand Theft Auto game ends on Nov. 19, when Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI after pushing the launch back twice. Analysts say the title from Take-Two Interactive's studio could become the biggest video game debut of all time.
The scale of the project is already striking. Roth analyst Eric Handler estimates Rockstar spent more than $1 billion developing the game, and Sensor Tower counted over 12 million preorders through Nov. 13. Morgan Stanley projects the game could sell 40 million copies by March 2027.
Investors have positioned themselves ahead of the release, and Take-Two's stock has more than doubled since the beginning of 2023. Chief Executive Strauss Zelnick addressed the demand in a recent 'Squawk Box' interview: 'We tend to be pretty judicious when we talk about this sort of thing, but our expectations were high and they are being vastly exceeded so far.'
The franchise has shown unusual staying power. Released 13 years ago, Grand Theft Auto V still ranks among the five most viewed games on Twitch this year, a record of lasting engagement the industry expects its successor to extend.
Streamers and content creators across the digital ecosystem are treating the launch as a major chance to build audiences and lift subscriber and advertising revenue. Deansocool, a creator with 375,000 Twitch followers who also posts on YouTube and other platforms, told CNBC the game will help creators grow and give newer streamers an opening to make a name for themselves.
'This game is going to make a lot of millionaires in 2027. A lot of creators gotta understand this is it. This is that golden ticket. This is like a hundred times bigger than Fortnite,' he said.
Twitch Chief Product Officer Mike Minton struck a similar tone: 'It goes beyond this launch moment into this sustaining opportunity for them to grow, build, engage and retain their audience and ultimately support themselves by making money.'
The impact is expected to reach well past gaming. Workplace time-off platform BambooHR said paid time off requests for the release date are running nearly 13% higher than equivalent days in 2024 and 2025, and nearly one in five workers plan to take time off for the launch.
A PwC report examined which parts of the economy could benefit from the game or be hurt by it, projecting a surge for food delivery companies from hunkered-down gamers and a possible lift for Miami tourism. The firm pointed to Seoul's Bukchon Hanok Village, which inspired a location in the hit Netflix movie KPop Demon Hunters, where foreign visitors rose 118% in the four weeks after the film debuted. Music streaming looks set to gain as well: Tom Petty's 'Love Is a Long Road,' featured in the first GTA VI trailer in December 2023, reportedly saw Spotify streams jump by more than 37,000%.
Not every sector stands to win. Bart Spiegel, who leads PwC's Global Entertainment and Media sector, noted that Thanksgiving viewing habits could shift as a solid share of the audience focuses on playing GTA VI. 'You're going to start to pull eyeballs away from video streaming platforms,' he said, adding that he expects first-quarter 2027 analyst calls to include executives saying 'some of our numbers were down because of the release of this game.' Rockstar Games declined CNBC's interview request.
