US midterm spending nears record $12bn as cost of living crisis bites

Spending on the US midterm elections is on course to be the highest in history, with candidates and outside political groups pouring close to a record $12bn into campaigning, according to OpenSecrets, a research group that tracks money in US politics.

The scale of the spending has drawn criticism in an election cycle where the cost of living and affordability top most campaign agendas. Critics say campaign finance rules give wealthy donors, corporations and special interest groups outsized influence over candidate and policy selection. Elon Musk, the world's richest man, has alone given $445m to Republicans, campaign finance records show.

US elections are funded in two ways. Candidates raise money directly for their own campaigns, and Democratic candidates are expected to have spent more than $2.2bn in the lead-up to these midterms, against $1.4bn by Republicans. Separately, corporations, unions and other associations can spend independently of individual candidates, a practice known as outside spending.

Such spending has surged since 2010, when the Supreme Court overturned a rule barring these organisations from funding adverts close to elections, treating election communications as protected political speech. A related lower court ruling then struck down limits on the size of contributions such groups could raise, provided they did not coordinate directly with candidates. Federal Election Commission data shows outside spending has nearly tripled in a decade, from $4.12bn in 2016 to an estimated $11.9bn this cycle.

Much of that money flows through independent expenditure-only political action committees, better known as super PACs, which face no limits on what donors can give. Among the largest, the Senate Leadership Fund has spent $489m and MAGA Inc $353m for Republican candidates, while the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC have spent $248m and $192m respectively for Democrats. Others are organised by individuals and interest groups, such as the Musk-founded America PAC and the George Soros-funded Democracy PAC, which backs Democrats.

Super PACs must report their direct contributors and financial activity to the Federal Election Commission monthly in election years, but funds can pass through multiple organisations, sometimes known as shell PACs, before being spent, making the original source hard to trace. Money whose source cannot be identified is commonly called dark money, and OpenSecrets says such contributions will surpass a record $1.5bn in these elections, up from $1.35bn in 2024, raising concerns about transparency.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani has accused the nonprofit lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, of spending "millions in dark money" on pro-Israel candidates. Public records reviewed by Al Jazeera found AIPAC channelled millions of dollars through shell PACs ahead of the midterms, much of it via the affiliated United Democracy Project super PAC. AIPAC was founded in the 1950s as the American Zionist Committee for Public Affairs, renamed in 1959, and says it now has more than 6 million members. Its spending has included nearly $15m for George Latimer's successful 2024 primary challenge to progressive Jamaal Bowman in New York, $5.24m for Wesley Bell against Cori Bush in Missouri, and $20.7m spent against Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Senate race.

The heaviest spending has landed in toss-up states including Georgia, Texas and Michigan, where an estimated $333m has been spent on the Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers has raised about $23m in direct contributions and El-Sayed roughly $54m, but outside groups have spent some $169m supporting Rogers and $94m supporting El-Sayed, who has campaigned on reforming election funding and taking "money out of politics".

The torrent of campaign cash comes as Americans face a cost-of-living crisis, with fuel prices soaring since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed diesel costs up 65 percent and fertiliser prices up as much as 40 percent, lifting food prices. According to the Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, Americans have spent at least $150bn on petrol and diesel since the war began, 30 percent more than they would have otherwise. The $12bn spent on the midterms would cover 8 percent of those fuel costs, or roughly $92 per household, equal the education spending cuts in the Trump administration's 2026 budget, or add a quarter to the National Institutes of Health research budget of $47bn.