Nearly eight months after launching the war with Iran, President Donald Trump has struggled to bring down soaring energy costs, a problem that threatens Republican efforts to keep control of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Cheap gasoline was a central promise of his second presidential campaign, and his public comments on the subject have changed markedly since the conflict began.

As of Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $4.29, compared with $2.98 before the war. Diesel topped $6 last month for the first time on record and now averages $6.35 a gallon, up from $3.76 in February. Crude oil prices have swung sharply as markets and consumers react to uncertainty over where the war is headed, and cost of living worries are weighing on many voters.

Trump has defended the price increase as worth paying to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. He has also kept blaming former President Joe Biden for economic troubles and has portrayed the global oil squeeze as a boost for American producers. "We're making a freaking fortune," he told supporters at a Georgia rally over the weekend.

The contrast with his earlier remarks is stark. In his 2026 State of the Union address, days before he joined Israel in launching the Feb. 28 attacks, Trump said gasoline was below $2.30 a gallon in most states and had even hit $1.85 in Iowa. At that point the national average was $2.95, about 19 cents lower than a year before.

Less than two weeks into the war, with Brent crude above $100 a barrel, up from about $70 in 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States is the world's largest oil producer, so "when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money."

By summer, hopes for peace had cooled oil prices, and his frustration turned to retailers. With oil at $68 a barrel, he said pump prices were too high and urged stations to cut them. The national gasoline average was $3.86 at the time, down from more than $4.50 in May but still about 67 cents above a year earlier. Before the Fourth of July, with Brent at $71.57, he promised gas prices would soon return to the record lows seen before what he called the "excursion" in Iran.

That optimism faded as fighting escalated again. In early September, with Brent past $101 a barrel, Trump said he did not expect oil prices to fall before the midterms. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," he said. At a North Carolina campaign stop, with gasoline averaging $4.37, about $1.18 more than a year earlier, he called the higher cost "a very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done."

This month, Trump said he had struck a deal to buy Russian diesel to ease fuel prices, a reversal of years of American pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine. He also claimed total control of the Strait of Hormuz, even though traffic there remains well below pre-war levels amid threats of more attacks from Tehran. Diesel then averaged $6.28 a gallon, slightly below a September high of nearly $6.53.

At a Kansas rally, Trump announced a harvest fuel relief program that he said would provide $8 billion in support for farmers. Diesel was averaging about $6.32 a gallon nationwide, 74% higher than the $3.63 of a year earlier. He told the crowd that if Republicans win, they will pass even more funding for farmers, and he asked them to "pretend please that I'm on the ballot."