Israel has come through four elections in 10 days, one of them its own, facing fresh uncertainty at home and abroad. The sequence began on October 25 in Serbia and ended with Tuesday's midterm elections in the United States.
In Serbia, the alliance of Aleksandar Vučić, a strong ally of Israel who resigned as president a month earlier and sought to retain power as prime minister, lost a snap parliamentary election to a student-backed list that grew out of an anti-corruption protest movement. The vote turned on domestic grievances, not Israel, but Vučić's defeat puts a strategically crucial relationship at risk.
After the October 7 massacre, as some Western allies restricted sales of arms or weapons components to Israel, Serbia stepped up. Israel reportedly contacted Belgrade as early as October 8, 2023, requesting ammunition, and 155-mm artillery shells were soon flown in. In February 2024, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Serbia's "unwavering support, both in word and deed" and called Vučić a "true friend of Israel."
The arms trade ran both ways: in August 2025 Serbia signed a $1.6 billion deal for Israeli drones, long-range missiles and electronic warfare systems, and on September 17 Vučić inaugurated a Belgrade factory to assemble Israeli-designed drones. The victorious Student List has pledged to halt arms exports to war zones, a commitment discussed publicly in connection with Ukraine, and declared in its manifesto: "We will not be complicit in the systematic attempt to destroy the Palestinian people that Israel is carrying out in the Gaza Strip."
That same Sunday, Brazilian voters reelected left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva over right-wing, pro-Israel challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, dashing hopes in Jerusalem that Brazil would follow Colombia, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and other Latin American countries in electing friendlier right-wing governments. After Bolsonaro led the first round in early October, Netanyahu called to congratulate him, and his office said the two intended to renew the deep friendship between the countries.
A Bolsonaro victory was expected to revive the policies of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who opened a trade office in Jerusalem in 2019, deepened defense and intelligence cooperation and shifted Brazil's UN voting patterns. Lula, who beat the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, backed South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, likened Israel's Gaza campaign to the Holocaust and recalled Brazil's ambassador.
Israel's own election ended in yet another deadlock. Netanyahu could point to Likud's status as the largest party and his bloc's lead over the change bloc, while the change bloc noted that parties outside Netanyahu's camp, including the Arab parties, won a clear majority of Knesset seats. Neither side can govern alone, raising the prospect of months of coalition talks and a government whose legitimacy is questioned at every turn.
Then came Tuesday's US midterms, in which Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Among those headed to Washington in January is anti-Israel Michigan Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, a sign that the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party gained considerable reinforcements. The key question for Jerusalem is how far mainstream Democrats will move in that direction on arms sales, military aid and oversight of US policy toward Israel.
The problem is not limited to Democrats. Some Republicans are already blaming Israel for the rout, arguing that high fuel prices from the Iran war, which they say Netanyahu dragged President Donald Trump into, cost the party. Vice President JD Vance quoted a pollster on X saying some 2024 Trump voters backed Democrats to end the Iran war, address the cost of living, put America first and change America's relationship with Israel. The new Congress will be sworn in on January 3 whether or not Israel has formed a government, giving its politicians good reason to form one quickly if they want a voice in Washington's debate over the relationship.
