No. 6 Kentucky Visits No. 13 Tennessee: Odds, Preview and Prediction for SEC Clash

Kentucky puts its No. 6 College Football Playoff ranking on the line Saturday at No. 13 Tennessee, with kickoff in Knoxville set for 6:15 p.m. ET. The Volunteers are 6-point home favorites at DraftKings, with an over/under of 49.5 total points.

The Wildcats, 7-1 under first-year head coach Will Stein, are ranked as high as the program has ever been. Tennessee, at 6-2, had its playoff hopes dented by last week's 27-24 loss at South Carolina, but a sea of orange will greet the upstart visitors.

Kentucky has won six straight since a 45-17 loss to Alabama in the second week of the season, a run that includes victories over ranked Texas A&M and LSU squads. It beat Vanderbilt 34-27 before last week's bye, and Tennessee, Florida and Missouri now loom in successive weeks, so Stein's team will need to stay sharp.

Quarterback Kenny Minchey has avoided mistakes, completing 69% of his passes for 1,755 yards with 14 touchdowns and just one interception, plus two rushing scores. The backfield trio is the bread and butter: CJ Baxter has 487 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, Jason Patterson has 443 yards and three scores, and Jovantae Barnes has 224 yards and a touchdown. All three average more than 5 yards per carry.

Both teams average more than 32 points per game. Tennessee ranks eighth in the SEC in total offense at 394.5 yards per game, one spot ahead of Kentucky at 386.4. The Volunteers are far stronger defensively, sitting fourth in the conference in yards allowed (288.4 per game) and third in scoring (16.3 points), while the Wildcats allow 24.8 points (10th) and 362.6 yards (11th). Kentucky's clear edge is turnover margin: plus-13, fourth best in the nation, against plus-3 for Tennessee.

Tennessee's offense also leans on the run. Its 213 rushing yards per game trail only South Carolina among SEC teams, while Kentucky averages 167, seventh in the league. DeSean Bishop ranks sixth nationally with 957 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and he has four consecutive 100-yard games, including 220 against Auburn. Backup Daune Morris adds 349 yards and two scores, and both backs average more than 5.5 yards per carry.

George MacIntyre has played the past four games in place of quarterback Faizon Brandon, throwing two touchdown passes and five interceptions in that span, and his fumble on a strip sack with 33 seconds left last week set up South Carolina's winning field goal. MacIntyre is completing 67% of his passes to Brandon's 60%, but Brandon has produced 10 touchdowns with one interception, though he has been sacked 15 times and has dealt with a shoulder injury. Both could see time, so the run game and defense figure to decide this one.

Tennessee leads the FBS with 35 sacks. Tyree Weathersby has seven, tied for ninth in the nation, Xavier Gilliam has six and Mariyon Dye has five, part of a group of nine players with at least two. The Vols have 14 takeaways, tied for 14th nationally, while Kentucky is tied for fourth with 18.

Kentucky has covered the spread in every game except the Alabama loss, and five of its eight games have gone over the total. Six of eight Tennessee games have stayed under, including all five at home. The Vols have won 12 of the past 14 meetings, one of them vacated, including a 56-34 victory in Lexington last October.

With both teams built around the run and neither quarterback a consistent downfield threat, the best bet looks like under 49.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and entered Week 10 at 80-77 on top-rated college football picks, has Tennessee winning 67% of the time and covering at a 53% rate, but its strongest play is on the total: a "B" grade on under 50.5, which hits 59.8% of the time, with a projected 27-19 final. SportsLine expert Eric Cohen is also backing the under and predicts a 20-14 Tennessee win. "With an uncertain quarterback situation, it does not benefit Josh Heupel's team to get into a shootout," he says.