It has been more than a month since the Premier League announced that Manchester City had been found guilty on 114 charges related to breaching the competition's financial rules and obstructing the investigation. Yet the club continues to play, and win, while sitting second in the table, with no clarity on what punishment will follow or what their results actually mean.
Given the severity of the verdict and the force of City's denials, relegation now appears the likely outcome. And in one of the stranger possibilities in modern football, a demoted City side could also end up winning the Champions League. Sportsbooks currently rate them only the sixth favorites for the European Cup, behind Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, with implied odds of around 10 percent.
Whether relegation comes via a huge points deduction or expulsion, the effect would be similar: almost all of City's focus would shift to Europe. Domestic cups could still offer a path into the Europa League or Conference League, but they involve few games. The Premier League's ruling applies only domestically, and UEFA's ability to act is uncertain after City had a European ban overturned on appeal six years ago, when the court ruled most alleged violations were time-barred rather than clearing the club of wrongdoing.
A lighter domestic schedule could even help. During Paris Saint-Germain's back-to-back European triumphs, the outfield starter with the most league minutes was Vitinha on 4,161 over the past two full seasons, a figure that ranks only 426th among outfield players in the Big Five leagues. Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk topped the list with 6,750. City's Antoine Semenyo sits fourth on 6,398, Marc Guéhi 14th on 6,209 and Erling Haaland has played around 5,700. Rested stars are simply less likely to be injured for the season's biggest matches.
The closest precedent is Juventus, relegated in 2006 after the Calciopoli scandal despite winning Serie A with 91 points, 15 clear of Inter Milan. They were rated the third-best team in the world by Club Elo and the third richest. City, currently fourth in the Elo ratings with the sixth-highest recorded revenue, occupy almost exactly the same position.
Juventus lost seven of the 10 players who had started at least 20 league games, including Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Patrick Vieira and Fabio Cannavaro. A similar clear-out at City would see the likes of Rúben Dias, Guéhi, Josko Gvardiol, Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández, Rayan Cherki and Haaland depart. Even so, Juventus cruised to the Serie B title with 85 points and a record 28 wins, and winning the Champions League could convince some City players to spend one season in the Championship with elite European football still on offer.
The finances still would not balance. A Champions League title is worth around 170 million euros, based on PSG's recent earnings, but the broadcast revenue gap between the Premier League and the Championship is closer to 300 million, and commercial income would likely suffer too. City carry the world's second-highest wage bill after Real Madrid, according to FBref estimates. Selling those seven players might save about 130 million euros in wages, yet buyers would know City have no leverage: Juventus sold their seven departures for a combined 84 million euros against an estimated value of 135 million, a 60 percent discount.
Lifting the trophy would also cement City's status as villains, potentially leaving neutral fans in the awkward position of cheering for Real Madrid and Jose Mourinho in the knockout rounds.
However it unfolds, the core reality stands: a second European crown would bring in useful money over the next two seasons, but if Manchester City are relegated, most of their most famous players are unlikely to still be at the club next season.
