Midterm math: How parties seek to defy history on Election Day

The midterm election is underway as voters decide the balance of power in Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. The Associated Press describes the day as a referendum on the president's performance, with many voters expressing frustration over high prices and an unpopular war with Iran. According to AP-NORC polling, 35 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while roughly seven in 10 say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

Historical data indicates that a president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. This year, the arithmetic is particularly tight. Democrats need a net gain of three House districts to claim a majority, while Republicans can lose no more than two. In the Senate, Democrats require a net gain of four seats for control, whereas Republicans can afford to lose only two. Ballotpedia identifies 46 battleground districts in the House, creating a high-stakes environment where small shifts in turnout could determine which party controls the legislative agenda.

Republicans have attempted to counter the midterm pattern through redistricting and strategic spending. The Associated Press notes that Republican committees have outraised and outspent their Democratic counterparts, aided by Trump-affiliated groups. However, 88.1 percent of Republican general election television ad spending targeted states and districts that Trump won in 2024. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters emphasized the importance of voter participation, stating, 'Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for.'

Democrats are relying on national dissatisfaction and targeted messaging to flip seats. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said, 'The American people are angry. They want change.' The party is focusing on economic issues, with voters like James Moore, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, citing higher taxes and healthcare costs as primary motivators. Democrats are also highlighting the stakes of a potential House victory, which would likely lead to investigations and possible impeachment proceedings. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would become the first Black speaker, has outlined a 100-day agenda centered on the cost of living and oversight.

In the Senate, 13 races are considered competitive according to Ballotpedia. Key contests include Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff faces Rep. Mike Collins, and Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown challenges Sen. Jon Husted. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, a race that became more contentious after El-Sayed's former primary opponent endorsed Rogers. The AP notes that economic strain and tariffs have made Maine a competitive battleground, where Sen. Susan Collins faces former state Senate President Troy Jackson.

Governor races also present a tight contest for control of statehouses. Democrats currently hold a minority of governorships, but a net gain of two seats would give them a nationwide majority for the first time in two decades. In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms runs against Republican health care executive Rick Jackson. In Nevada, Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford challenges incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo. The AP identifies Texas, Florida, and Iowa as additional competitive governor races where the outcome could influence the broader partisan map.

Voter participation has already exceeded expectations. More than 57 million people had voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote totals from four years ago in many closely watched states. The U.S. Postal Service has added hours and staff to ensure mail ballots are counted on time. Meanwhile, election administration has seen legal challenges, with a federal judge temporarily barring the Trump administration from implementing a plan to prevent noncitizen voting. Critics argue the move risks disenfranchising eligible voters, while the administration maintains it is necessary to ensure integrity.

Money has played a significant role in shaping the campaign landscape. The 2026 elections are likely to be the most expensive in history. At the candidate level, Democrats have outraised their opponents, even as party committees saw different results. This financial intensity reflects the high stakes involved, with Wall Street watching for signals that could impact investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The outcome of these races will determine the legislative environment for the remainder of the current administration.

Voters are casting ballots in a wide range of states, with poll hours varying by location. In states like California, Colorado, and Oregon, voting is largely conducted by mail, while others require in-person participation. The AP reports that Republicans are bracing to lose the House but are fighting to hold the Senate, with one or two seats potentially tipping either chamber. Democrats remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to the president's low approval ratings and the desire for change among independent and Democratic-leaning voters.

The day also marks the first time several states use new congressional maps following mid-decade redistricting. California, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas are using new districts, with Ohio also adopting a new map. These changes could alter the political dynamics in traditionally safe areas. As polls close, the focus shifts to counting votes and determining which party will control the chambers of Congress. The results will shape the final two years of the current term and set the stage for the 2028 presidential cycle, where potential candidates like Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg could benefit from a strong Democratic showing.

Election officials in various states have implemented measures to handle the high volume of ballots. In New Hampshire, poll hours vary by town, with some opening as late as 11 a.m. and closing no earlier than 7 p.m. In North Dakota, polls open between 7 and 9 a.m. and close between 7 and 9 p.m. The Associated Press notes that the election is being closely watched for signs of a potential shift in power, with both parties claiming momentum in different regions. The final tally will determine whether the president's party can defy the historical midterm trend or if the traditional pattern holds once again.