Two undefeated teams lost in Week 7, and the fallout has reshaped CBS Sports' projected NFL playoff picture. With the 49ers and Chiefs both knocked from the unbeaten ranks, a full-season simulation now points to a Super Bowl between the Bills and the Vikings.
Analytics expert Stephen Oh simulated the remaining 165 regular-season games and all 13 playoff games for the 2026 season. The run produced eight division winners, a 14-team playoff field and a champion. The projection reflects where teams are expected to finish, not the current standings.
In the AFC, the Chiefs' loss hands the No. 1 seed to the Bills (5-1). Kansas City (5-1) is the No. 2 seed, followed by the Jaguars (4-2) and Bengals (4-2) as division winners. The Broncos (4-2), Steelers (5-2) and Ravens (4-3) fill the wild-card spots. The Patriots (4-3) and Browns (5-2) just missed. Cleveland has not won a division title since 1989, and the model has the Browns finishing 8-9.
The Bengals are now projected to win the AFC North. They became the first team in 75 years to win by at least 20 points after trailing by at least 13 at halftime. Their remaining schedule also helps, since they face only one more road game against a team with a winning record, the Browns in Week 13.
In the NFC, the Vikings (6-0), the league's only remaining unbeaten team, take the top seed from the 49ers (6-1). The Falcons (3-4) and Cowboys (3-4) are projected division winners, with the Lions (4-2), Seahawks (4-3) and Bears (5-2) as wild cards. The Packers (4-3) and Rams (3-4) just missed.
Dallas is projected to win the NFC East for the first time this season. The model gives the Cowboys a 38.5% chance of taking the division, just ahead of the Giants at 37.3%, and notes Dallas has the fourth-easiest remaining schedule. All four NFC North teams currently hold playoff spots, but the simulation has Seattle getting in, leaving Green Bay out.
In the wild-card round, the simulation sends the Chiefs, Jaguars and Broncos through in the AFC, with Denver edging Cincinnati 24-23. In the NFC, the 49ers, Seahawks and Lions advance, with Detroit beating Dallas 33-30 for what would be its first road playoff win of the Super Bowl era.
The divisional round has the Bills beating the Broncos and the Chiefs topping the Jaguars in the AFC. In the NFC, the Vikings defeat the Seahawks 20-17 and the 49ers edge the Lions 29-28. Buffalo then beats Kansas City 28-23 in the AFC title game, which would be the Bills' first Super Bowl trip in 33 years. Minnesota beats San Francisco 23-20 in the NFC.
In Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium, the Bills beat the Vikings 26-21, giving Buffalo its first Lombardi Trophy. Both franchises are 0-4 in Super Bowls, the most appearances without a win in NFL history, and the game falls on Valentine's Day.
The model gives the Bills a 12.97% chance of winning the title, with the Vikings at 11.15%. Only three other teams top 8%: the Chiefs (9.5%), 49ers (8.4%) and Jaguars (8.3%). This is the first week the Bills have been projected as champions.
