Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has historically positioned himself as the key guarantor of strong ties between Israel and the United States. This image was reinforced last month when President Donald Trump offered his endorsement ahead of Israel's parliamentary elections. The two nations had jointly engaged in military operations against Iran earlier in the year, further cementing the perception of a robust alliance.
However, the recent US midterm elections resulted in a significant defeat for Trump's Republican Party. Early analyses of this loss point to the Iran war and the broader US-Israel relationship as key factors. US Vice President JD Vance highlighted these issues, challenging Netanyahu's claim that his leadership is the secret sauce for maintaining the alliance. Critics now argue that Israeli policies, including the war in Gaza and regional attacks, have made Israel politically toxic in American eyes.
As Israeli leaders maneuver to form a new government following the October 27 elections, the opposition has directed blame at Netanyahu. They argue that his tenure has weakened the reliability of US support. Yair Lapid, a former prime minister and member of the opposition bloc, emphasized his connections with US Congress members. He stated on social media that American voters are primarily against Netanyahu and the extremist ministers and settler violence associated with his government.
Avigdor Lieberman, another opposition leader, suggested that Trump's election day announcement ending US military aid to Israel was a trade for his support of Netanyahu. Lieberman noted that the cost of this support was approximately 3.8 billion dollars annually. This financial shift is expected to impact Israel's defense budget, which already stands at seven percent of GDP, causing economic strain for Israeli citizens.
Ahron Bregman, a security analyst at King's College London, observed that Netanyahu is turning segments of the population against one another. He noted that Netanyahu is attempting to delegitimize Arab citizens by claiming they stole the elections, a move designed to prevent the opposition from forming a partnership with Arab parties. Bregman argued that Israel can no longer act as a rogue state and expect the status quo to remain unchanged.
The election results left Netanyahu's right-wing bloc with 53 seats in the Knesset, falling short of the 61 needed for a majority. The opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot secured 48 seats. Arab-led parties, including the United Arab List and the Joint List, hold 19 seats and have declared their support for Eisenkot as prime minister.
President Isaac Herzog has yet to nominate a candidate to form a government. Eisenkot's Zionist bloc, which has previously ruled out serving alongside Arab-led parties, is set to benefit from their external support. This dynamic was further strengthened on Thursday when United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox ally of Netanyahu, declined to recommend him for the task. This is the first time since 2009 that they have done so, marking a notable defection that weakens the prime minister's position.
Despite these political shifts, experts caution that a change in leadership may not immediately repair Israel's image in the US. Shibley Telhami, a pollster at the University of Maryland, pointed to an April Pew Research Center poll showing that American public opinion on Israel is as negative as their view of Netanyahu. Telhami noted that most Americans would not change their views of Israel even with a new government, suggesting that any future administration will face a challenging public landscape.
Telhami added that no Israeli government could likely return relations to their state from five years ago. He described the current political environment as a rising public tide against which any new administration would be swimming. This sentiment underscores the complexity of Israel's diplomatic challenges as it navigates its internal political crisis.
