Democrat Zach Dembo won Kentucky’s Sixth Congressional District on Tuesday by nearly 10 percentage points, reversing the political picture in an area President Donald Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. His victory over Republican Ralph Alvarado drew strength from Lexington and substantial improvements in surrounding suburban and rural counties.
Compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ results in 2024, Dembo improved the Democratic margin by at least 19 percentage points in every county. His biggest percentage point gains came in places he ultimately lost. Bath and Nicholas counties each shifted by more than 33 points, while Fayette and Woodford, the two counties he won, moved by less than 20 points.
Fayette County, which accounts for 43% of the district’s voters, remained central to the outcome. But changes in neighboring Madison and Scott counties, both among Kentucky’s fastest growing over the past decade, also substantially reduced the Republican advantage. In Madison, Trump had defeated Harris by about 14,000 votes, nearly twice her total. Dembo lost there by just over 1,000 votes, finishing four percentage points behind Alvarado.
Scott County, whose population has grown alongside the expanding Toyota plant in Georgetown, came even closer to changing parties. Trump won the county by 28 percentage points and more than 8,000 votes in 2024. Dembo finished fewer than 100 votes behind Alvarado.
Precinct results showed Dembo winning Georgetown, Richmond and Berea, along with Nicholasville in Jessamine County and Winchester in Clark County, where Alvarado lives. He also limited Republican advantages in rural precincts. Even in Garrard, Fleming and Estill counties, where he lost heavily, his gains over the 2024 Democratic results helped prevent Alvarado from recovering enough votes elsewhere.
The district’s overall 24.4 percentage point swing exceeded the improvement recorded by Kentucky Democratic Senate candidate Charles Booker. Dembo’s ability to compete financially helped him communicate his message: his campaign, Democratic committees and allied super PACs accounted for roughly half of the approximately $20 million spent on advertising in the race.
The result accompanied broader Democratic gains amid declining support for Trump and rising consumer prices. A New York Times analysis found that Democratic candidates in the week’s 35 U.S. Senate elections improved on their party’s 2024 performance in every county across those states, including Kentucky.
Republican strategist Tres Watson had expected Alvarado to lose more narrowly. He attributed the result to Republican voters staying home, including Trump supporters who do not vote when the president is absent from the ballot and centrists unhappy with him. Democratic consultant Jared Smith likewise argued that Alvarado had little ability to overcome the political environment, while crediting Dembo’s fundraising and campaign execution.
Kentucky Democratic Party executive director Morgan Eaves emphasized Dembo’s resume, strength as a first-time candidate and competitive primary experience. She also said headlines about former Gov. Matt Bevin’s arrest helped Dembo connect Alvarado to Bevin, his running mate in 2019. Eaves argued that inflation, higher prices and the effects of tariffs on small business profits resonated especially strongly in communities with fewer economic opportunities.
Eaves, a Madison County native, saw its results as a possible indication of renewed Democratic strength. The county was reliably Democratic when former Congressman Ben Chandler represented it, she said, but its coroner is now the only Democratic official in county government. She suggested Tuesday’s outcome could signal movement back toward the party in Madison and similar counties.
