Parts of New South Wales are bracing for dangerous and severe supercell thunderstorms on Sunday, November 15. The Bureau of Meteorologist has issued warnings for volatile weather conditions across the eastern states, highlighting the potential for giant hail and powerful winds. This severe activity follows a busy Saturday when storms delivered heavy rain to large sections of northern and eastern NSW as well as much of Queensland.
During the weekend's initial weather event, strong winds reached speeds of 98km/h in Goulburn. Rainfall totals in the Coffs Harbour area ranged between 30mm and 50mm. These conditions set the stage for a continued period of unsettled weather that is expected to impact the region over the coming days.
A significant incident occurred on Saturday afternoon at Ettalong beach on the NSW Central Coast. A man in his 20s was struck by lightning while swimming. Fellow swimmers pulled him from the water, and first responders administered CPR until NSW Ambulance paramedics arrived on the scene. The young man was transported to Gosford hospital in a serious state and was subsequently transferred to Royal North Shore hospital.
As of Sunday morning, a hospital spokesperson reported that the patient remains in a critical but stable condition. Witnesses at the beach described the scene as clear and sunny, with storm activity visible only in the distance towards Gosford. They noted that the lightning bolt appeared to strike out of nowhere. Meteorological experts note that lightning can strike up to 30km from the center of a storm cell, a fact that underscores the danger of being in open water during unsettled weather.
Sarah Scully, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorologist, described Sunday as another big storm day. She warned that very dangerous and severe thunderstorms are likely for north-eastern NSW. These storms carry the risk of hail with diameters greater than 5cm and wind speeds exceeding 120km/h. Scully explained that a southerly change pushing up the NSW coast is acting as a trigger for these high-end supercell thunderstorms.
The severe weather is not limited to the northern regions. Severe thunderstorms with 2cm hail and wind gusts over 90km/h are possible across a broader area of NSW, extending down towards the inland ranges east of Sydney. The system is also pushing into south-east and central Queensland. While Sydney is expected to see storms on Sunday, they are likely to be less severe than those further north, with rain still probable and a forecast high of 23C.
Other eastern cities are also experiencing unsettled conditions. Brisbane is expecting showers and thunderstorms with a top temperature of 31C. The Bureau of Meteorologist plans to issue additional severe weather warnings throughout Sunday as the storms develop. On Monday, the risk of high-end severe thunderstorms is expected to shift into the NSW northern rivers and south-eastern Queensland, including areas such as Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast.
This shift in weather patterns is being driven by a trough pushing up the coast, combined with the very humid conditions that eastern Australia has experienced over the last few days. A coastal trough featuring a low-pressure system is developing off the north coast of NSW near the Queensland border. This system has the potential to bring additional rainfall to the coastal areas.
Scully noted that the amount of rainfall is highly dependent on how close the trough sits to the coast and how long it lingers. At this stage, moderate rainfall totals of between 30mm and 70mm are expected during the day, easing into Tuesday morning. However, meteorologists are monitoring the situation closely because rainfall from coastal troughs is notoriously difficult to predict. A slight shift closer to the shore could result in significantly higher rain totals.
Outside of the severe weather zone, other parts of the country are seeing milder conditions. Melbourne is experiencing developing showers with a forecast high of 17C. Hobart has a high chance of showers with a temperature of 13C, while Adelaide is cloudy with a mild 20C. Canberra and Perth are both partly cloudy, with expected highs of 24C and 28C respectively. Darwin is set for 34C and an afternoon storm.
