The Minnesota Vikings are set to host the Buffalo Bills in the final game of the Week 9 NFL schedule on Monday Night Football. This matchup features a clash between the league's top offense and its premier defense. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has sided with the defensive unit. The model favors the Vikings to cover as 3-point underdogs in this high-stakes contest.
The Vikings enter the game as the final undefeated team in the NFL before suffering a 19-15 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Despite that recent defeat, the team remains unbeaten at home this season with a 3-0 record. Minnesota boasts the best scoring defense in the league, allowing only 13.3 points per game. Conversely, the Bills possess the number one scoring offense in the NFL, though they have covered a 3-point spread on the road in only one of their three away games this season.
The projection model anticipates that Josh Allen will face significant challenges from the stout Minnesota defense. In its simulations, the Vikings cover the spread in 53% of the outcomes. The model has shown strong performance since its inception, with top-rated NFL picks generating over $5,000 in profit for $100 players. Entering Week 9 of the 2026 season, the model has a record of 60-51 on these specific picks dating back to 2024.
Beyond the team spread, the SportsLine team of experts has identified specific player prop opportunities. One recommended pick involves Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir, with the model backing him for over 3.5 receptions. Another selection focuses on Vikings star Justin Jefferson, with the model predicting he will exceed 76.5 receiving yards. Combining these three picks into a same-game wager at BetMGM Sportsbook offers a potential payout of +400, meaning a $100 stake could yield a $400 profit.
Prop Bet Guy Doug provided analysis on the selection for Khalil Shakir. He noted that the slot receiver has served as a safety blanket for Josh Allen throughout his career. Doug pointed out that Shakir has been targeted on 15 of his 51 routes when Allen is blitzed, catching 11 of those passes. His 0.29 target per route run leads the Bills. The expert added that the Vikings blitz at a 69% rate, which is nearly double that of any other team, and their two-high safety and zone-heavy scheme aligns well with Shakir's route tree.
SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick, also known as PropStarz, commented on the pick for Justin Jefferson. Selesnick highlighted that Carson Wentz will be under center for the Bills during the Monday Night Football game. He described this as positive news for Jefferson, noting that the two players have demonstrated strong chemistry. Selesnick characterized the matchup as excellent within what is expected to be a competitive game environment.
Bettors interested in these picks can utilize the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS. This code offers new users $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins, or up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their qualifying wager loses. The specific terms of the offer depend on the user's location. The SportsLine team continues to provide picks across various sports, including the NBA, college football, college basketball, UFC, and NHL.
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