UTSA faces one of the biggest games in program history Thursday night when the Roadrunners visit Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. UTSA enters at 7-1 overall and 4-0 in the American Conference, but the first College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday showed how much work remains.
The Roadrunners were not included in the initial Top 25. Boise State, at No. 25, was the only Group of 6 program ranked, and the Broncos are viewed as the clear frontrunner for the playoff spot reserved for a Group of 6 champion. Boise State, which rallied to beat Texas State by one point last week, is listed at +100 to reach the playoff, and one projection model gives the Broncos a 77.7 percent chance, the sixth-best mark in the country and ahead of Ohio State at 69.6 percent.
Should Boise State stumble, UTSA and New Mexico of the Mountain West appear to be the next leading Group of 6 candidates. Each owns a single quality loss, the Roadrunners falling at then-No. 1 Texas and the Lobos losing at then-ranked Oklahoma, though UTSA's overall schedule is considered the stronger of the two. Even so, UTSA carries +600 odds to make the playoff, and the same model gives the Roadrunners only a 0.7 percent chance, 40th in the nation. A loss to Florida Atlantic would all but end the discussion.
The top of the rankings offered some historical encouragement for the leading contenders. Miami landed at No. 1, the first time the Hurricanes have ever topped the CFP rankings, followed by Georgia, Utah and Indiana. Of the 12 national champions crowned in the playoff era, 11 were ranked in the top four when the first rankings came out.
Coach Jeff Traylor's team has already secured bowl eligibility for a seventh consecutive season, and the 7-1 start is the program's best since 2021. There is also a sense that a playoff run could accelerate Traylor's long-rumored departure to a power conference job. His offense is once again productive, ranking fourth in the American at 33.5 points per game behind senior quarterback Owen McCown, the son of longtime NFL quarterback and current Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. The left-hander has started 35 straight games and has thrown for 1,751 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions this season, while running back Will Henderson III has rushed 109 times for 664 yards and five scores.
Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, would become bowl eligible with a victory, and the Owls have been perfect at home at 4-0. Their offense has actually outscored UTSA's, averaging 37.8 points per game. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has completed 227 of 316 passes for 2,536 yards with 23 touchdowns against five interceptions, and his top target, Easton Messer, leads the nation with 74 catches while ranking fifth with 898 receiving yards and tied for fifth with nine touchdowns. Messer has also returned two punts for scores, and on Oct. 24 against Rice he became the only player this century to record two receiving touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a punt return touchdown in the same game.
The Owls' weakness is a defense surrendering 468.9 yards and 35.8 points per game, a big reason oddsmakers set the total at 72.5, among the highest in the country this season, with UTSA favored by 6.5 points.
Thursday marks the sixth meeting between the programs. Florida Atlantic leads the series 3-2, including 2-1 in Boca Raton, but UTSA has won the last two matchups, including its most recent trip to Florida in 2023. The teams have not met since 2024 in Texas.
