The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences may be heading for a repeat of its most criticized era. Current aggregated predictions from Gold Derby indicate a stark lack of diversity in the upcoming awards cycle. In late October, only three actors of color held projected nomination slots across the four acting categories. Notably, no director of color appeared in the projected top five. In the lead acting races, nine of the ten projected positions were occupied by white performers, with Mexican Australian actor Inde Navarrette serving as the sole exception.
If these projections hold until nominations are announced on January 21, the industry will relive the events of January 2015. That year, all 20 acting nominees were white, a fact that sparked the #OscarsSoWhite movement. The Academy promised changes after that year and the following one, but data suggests the issue lies deeper within Hollywood's production habits. A recent study by the USC Annenberg Inclusion Initiative, covering the 100 top-grossing movies of 2025, provides context for this trend.
The study, titled "Inequality in 1,900 Popular Films," shows that while 41.5% of speaking or named characters in 2025 came from underrepresented groups, significant gaps remain. Thirty films featured no Black characters, 46 had no Hispanic or Latino characters, and 26 lacked Asian characters. Among the 37 leads and co-leads of color identified, only four were Hispanic or Latino. The study also noted that only four Latino directors worked across the entire sample, and all four were men.
Representation behind the camera remains even more limited. Women held only 33.6% of speaking or named roles in 2025, a slight increase from 29.9% in 2007. Across the 19-year dataset, women account for just 7% of directors. In 2025, only nine of the 111 directors were women, matching the count from 2008. This statistic highlights the persistent barrier for female filmmakers, including prominent names like Chloé Zhao and Olivia Wilde, who are currently in the conversation for the awards season.
Despite the statistical headwinds, a strong bench of talent exists that could alter the narrative. Zendaya, who has never received an Oscar nomination, is having a significant year with roles in "The Drama," "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," and "The Odyssey." Warner Bros. is positioning her for best actress for her role in "Dune: Part Three," which opens December 18. Many in the industry believe this could be the season she finally lands a nomination.
Colman Domingo, who starred in the billion-grossing biopic "Michael," is another key figure. His performance as Joe Jackson places him squarely on the bubble for best supporting actor. A third nomination, and his first in the supporting category, would cement his status as a defining presence of the decade. He recently received the Vantage Award at the Academy Museum Gala, a platform where voters were present. His co-star, Jaafar Jackson, also hovers in the top ten of many pundits' predictions, though the Golden Globes' categorization of the film as a drama rather than a comedy or musical complicates his path.
Other notable performers of color include Mahershala Ali, who delivers a lead turn in "Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother," and John Cho, whose performance in the same film has drawn praise. Gemma Chan is being campaigned in supporting actress for her role in "Josephine," a Sundance winner. In the lead category, Jeon Do-yeon stands out in "Possible Love," a Netflix film that won the Venice Grand Jury Prize. She reunites with director Lee Chang-dong, who is also a candidate for the directing race.
The director's race is particularly thin. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, who co-directed "Project Hail Mary," are the most prominent candidates of color in that category. Lee Chang-dong returns with "Possible Love," and Nigerian twin filmmakers Arie and Chuko Esiri are behind "Clarissa." Alejandro G. Iñárritu, a two-time winner, is also in the mix with "Digger," though the film has received mixed reviews. In 2015, Iñárritu won best director as the only filmmaker of color in the category, a historical echo that the industry hopes to break this year.
For Black women, the landscape is challenging. Rosalind Eleazar's performance in "Misty Green" was well-received but the buzz has faded since the film's October release. Sophie Okonedo has two strong performances in "Mouse" and "Clarissa," but competing in two categories could split campaign attention. The Latino bench is deep, with John Leguizamo in "The Odyssey" and Pedro Pascal in "Behemoth!" both considered strong contenders. Pascal's film opens in December, leaving little time to build momentum.
With nominations morning 10 weeks away, the onus is on distributors and voters. The Academy has over 11,000 members, a quarter of whom live outside the U.S., making it the most global voting body in its history. However, this diversity is only effective if voters see the films. Many titles are arriving late or running lean campaigns. Critics groups and industry insiders urge voters to press play on these performances to ensure the 2027 Oscars do not repeat the history of 2015.
