South Africa's municipal elections are unlikely to trigger an immediate change in the country's policy toward Israel, but the African National Congress's shrinking electoral dominance could make it steadily harder for the party to hold its diplomatic line without pushback from coalition partners, Jason Halfon told The Jerusalem Post. Halfon is a South African based in Israel who previously held leadership roles in the Democratic Alliance and is a graduate of its Young Leaders and, more recently, Catalyst programs.
In the November 4 local elections, the ANC's share of the national proportional representation vote fell to approximately 30.9%, down from 45.6% in 2021. The Democratic Alliance rose to about 24.7% from 21.7%, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party took roughly 9.8%. Halfon argued the results reflect not only the ANC's fading popularity but also a growing fragmentation of political power, with seven of the country's eight metropolitan municipalities heading toward coalition negotiations after no party won an outright majority.
Although the vote does not directly alter the national government, Halfon said the outcome could affect the balance of power inside the governing coalition ahead of the next national elections. He added that the losses carry organizational consequences for the ANC itself, because municipal control has long supplied party revenue through contributions from public representatives and has sustained local patronage networks. Losing council seats and executive posts reduces both income and the party's ability to steer appointments and procurement, with the full impact likely to emerge before the ANC's 2027 elective conference.
Municipal councils do not set diplomatic policy, which remains centered on the Presidency, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, and the national executive. Still, Halfon said the results could strengthen parties seeking to challenge ANC policies, particularly the DA, the largest non-ANC party in the Government of National Unity and one essential to its parliamentary majority. While alternative partners exist on paper, he argued that turning toward parties born from ANC fractures would risk accelerating further splits.
That structural position creates what Halfon called "latent leverage," which could be exercised through contested appointments, demands for formal coordination on major foreign-policy decisions, and linking municipal coalition talks to broader governance issues. Asked whether this could eventually produce a more pragmatic South African foreign policy toward Israel, he said it could, but "indirectly, and only over time."
"Single-party dominance of diplomatic posture becomes harder to maintain when coalition partners control significant local executive authority and can link national cooperation to broader governance demands," he explained. Rather than sudden alignment with Israel, he suggested the results could encourage a "gradual move toward greater pragmatism," prioritizing economic and technological interests such as water management, agriculture, and municipal innovation over ideology. He also noted that South Africa's large Christian population gives practical weight to the cost of restricted travel and pilgrimage links. "These factors create space for recalibration if non-ANC parties consistently use their municipal and national leverage to demand it," he said.
The ANC has historically made support for the Palestinian cause central to its foreign policy and political identity, a position that became particularly prominent in December 2023 when South Africa brought a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of violating the Genocide Convention through its military activity in Gaza. Israel has rejected the allegations and challenged the court's jurisdiction. The case remains ongoing, with the ICJ setting November 22, 2027, as the deadline for South Africa's next written submission and May 22, 2029, for Israel's response. No final ruling on the genocide allegations has been issued.
Halfon said the ANC's pro-Palestinian stance remains "institutionally entrenched," even as the framework that once contained it has eroded. "Historically the ANC maintained a more complex position," he told the Post, noting that many South African Jews played significant roles in the anti-apartheid struggle and that Nelson Mandela explicitly recognized the legitimacy of Zionism as Jewish national self-determination while also supporting Palestinian aspirations. "Today the position functions less as a carefully weighed principle and more as a source of elite cohesion, international signaling, and domestic distraction," he continued.
He argued the claim of solidarity with liberation movements has become harder to sustain on two grounds: consistency, since equivalent diplomatic energy is not applied to crises such as the mass internment of Uyghurs or the large-scale killing of Christians in parts of Africa, and opportunity cost, as South Africa faces collapsing municipal infrastructure, unreliable water and power, and high levels of violence. While support for the Palestinian cause remains deeply embedded, he said "its political returns are diminishing relative to its costs," and the municipal results could reinforce that pressure by showing voters want more focus on infrastructure, service delivery, and public safety, though not necessarily rejecting the ANC's position on Israel.
"The era of unchallenged single-party control of diplomatic posture is ending," Halfon said, adding that the quality of the coalitions that emerge, and whether non-ANC parties treat foreign policy as a legitimate area of negotiation, will determine whether change produces a more balanced, interest-driven approach. "The municipal results themselves do not guarantee that outcome; they only make it possible," he concluded.
