Traders on the prediction market Kalshi have marked down the chances that Anthropic will announce an initial public offering in the near future, a shift that unfolded over the past week as artificial intelligence stocks retreated following Democratic victories in Congress and several governor's races.
The odds of Anthropic announcing an IPO before December fell to 57% from more than 85% in the span of a week. The probability of an announcement before January also declined, sliding to 68% from 90%. The Kalshi contract asks when the company will officially announce a public offering, with the result to be verified by news outlets.
Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, a step that put the artificial intelligence company on a potential path toward the public markets.
The repricing came as investors grew concerned that Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could slow the construction of data centers, a development that would make bets on the AI sector less attractive.
In Texas, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, a Democrat who defeated three-term Republican Greg Abbott, made tighter rules on data center buildout a theme of her campaign.
"We will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections," she told CNN on Thursday.
The market backdrop has been punishing for technology shares. The Nasdaq Composite closed Thursday more than 10% below its most recent high, passing the threshold Wall Street uses to define a correction. The S&P 500 dropped 4.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 1,800 points, a decline of 3.4%.
Stocks tried to stabilize on Friday. The Nasdaq climbed 1.3% and the S&P 500 added 0.7%, while the Dow slipped 0.2%.
Several names tied to the AI trade bounced back on Friday after heavy losses earlier in the week. Micron Technology and Nvidia each rose about 4% after falling 17% and 9%, respectively, the previous day. CoreWeave shares gained more than 2% on Friday morning after dropping roughly 10% on Wednesday. Even if those gains hold, the stocks remain sharply lower over the past week.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
