With Election Day close, voters across the Bay Area are deciding whether to back a regional transit tax measure meant to help fund systems including BART, Muni, AC Transit and the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority.
Transit operators say ridership has fallen steadily since the COVID-19 pandemic. They warn that deep cutbacks could follow if new money does not arrive. Under contingency plans, BART said it could be forced to close 10 stations, and Muni said it might cancel up to 20 bus routes. AC Transit cautioned that it could eliminate up to 16 percent of its bus service, while Caltrain could reduce weekday service and end weekend trains altogether.
For regular riders, the possibility of lost routes is a real worry. "I think we do need to raise the money for public transportation," one voter said. Another transit user described what cuts would mean personally: "It would be catastrophic for me. Then I'd have to walk both ways to work."
Transportation analyst and author Jarrett Walker said agencies would have little room to put off cuts if the measure fails. "I think if the measure fails, I think there will be some attempt to find a last-minute source, but there isn't much time," Walker said. "BART says they have to cut right away in '27, and I believe them." Supporters also argue that severe service reductions would push more commuters onto the roads and cause widespread gridlock along regional corridors.
If approved, the measure would add a half-cent sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. In San Francisco, the sales tax would rise by 1 percent. The increase is projected to bring in roughly $980 million a year over 14 years to support regional transit operations.
Opponents say the tax is unnecessary and that transit agencies should fix their own inefficiencies before receiving more public money. "We say we need fixes before funding," said Gregg Dieguez, president of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit. Dieguez and other critics contend that local agencies have a history of fiscal mismanagement and have not adapted through innovation.
Dieguez also rejected the warnings of regional gridlock. "We have better things we could do with that money. We need a new electrical grid," he said. He pointed to the 2013 BART strike, which fully shut down the system, and argued that the potential cuts are far smaller. "We're much more able to adapt than we were then," he said.
The race appears tight. A recent poll by the Bay Area News Group found 48 percent of surveyed voters planned to support the measure and 34 percent planned to vote against it, while 18 percent were undecided. Walker noted that the margin leaves room for late shifts. "Lots of people who aren't particularly focused on this measure are going to decide at the last minute, and it needs 50 percent to pass," he said.
