The first exit polls from Israel's election, released Tuesday night, point to a split result that could put President Isaac Herzog in a delicate position. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud appears to be the largest party, but the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot holds more seats in total.
Projections from Kan and Channel 13 gave Likud 25 seats, against 23 for Eisenkot's Yashar party. Across the blocs, the opposition was projected at 53 seats and Netanyahu's camp at 50. Neither side appears to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset.
Under Israeli law, the president must consult the Knesset factions before deciding who receives the first opportunity to form a government. That decision now looks likely to be a contested one.
Netanyahu can be expected to point to Likud's status as the largest individual party. Eisenkot, for his part, can argue from the numbers in parliament: a larger bloc and a better chance of putting together a government, particularly if the parties opposed to Netanyahu can unite behind a single candidate.
How Eisenkot would actually build a coalition remains unclear. Few parties have said they would sit with the Arab parties, which are projected to win a record 18 mandates. The exception is Yair Golan's Democrats.
Herzog knows the territory well. Before becoming president in 2021, Herzog led the Labor Party and served as opposition leader. The presidency has also been marked by political tensions, and criticism is likely to follow whichever choice is made.
The figures come with a caveat. These are exit polls only, and final results could still shift, especially because several smaller parties are hovering around the electoral threshold.
Even so, Herzog may soon face the hardest decision of the presidency so far. One option is Netanyahu, Israel's long-time leader, who has led the country through a multi-front war against its enemies. The other is Eisenkot, the potential leader of the largest bloc, at a time when millions of Israelis voted and called for change. Whichever candidate is chosen, millions of Israelis will almost certainly believe the other should have been given the first chance.
