A pair of Big 12 programs that cracked the top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff rankings will square off Saturday afternoon, as the ninth-ranked BYU Cougars travel to face the third-ranked Utah Utes. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City.
Both teams arrive with momentum. BYU edged Arizona State 27-20 in Week 9, while Utah rolled to a 49-25 road victory at Cincinnati. The Cougars sit at 7-1 overall and 4-1 in conference play, good for second place in the Big 12, and they have gone 2-1 away from home this season. The Utes remain perfect at 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the league, and they have won all five of their games at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
The rivalry history leans one way, but recent results lean the other. Utah holds a 59-34-4 advantage in the all-time series, yet BYU has taken each of the last three meetings, including a 24-21 victory last season.
Oddsmakers have installed Utah as a 4.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 49.5 total points. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, is backing the Over after running its simulations for this matchup. The Over has cashed in each of BYU's last three games and in six of Utah's last 10.
Offensive production helps explain that lean. Utah fields the second-highest scoring offense in the Big 12, putting up 38.9 points per game, while BYU ranks eighth in the conference at 32.4 points per game. The model is calling for 50 combined points, making the Over the value side 54% of the time.
The projections also offer a look at the quarterback duel. BYU's Bear Bachmeier is forecast to throw for 220 yards and one touchdown. He enters the game with 1,750 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Utah's Devon Dampier is projected to top 230 passing yards with two touchdowns, adding to season totals of 1,876 yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Beyond the total, the model also indicates that one side of the spread hits in more than 60% of its simulations, though that pick is available exclusively at SportsLine. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run across all of its top-rated college football selections.
With an undefeated record, home-field advantage and first place in the Big 12 at stake for Utah, and a statement road win available for BYU, Saturday's meeting carries significant weight for both programs' playoff positioning.
