Conference College Football Games Are Closer Than at Any Point in at Least 50 Years

Upsets keep piling up in college football, and the numbers suggest the talk of parity among coaches is more than routine postgame language. Conference games this season are being decided by the narrowest margins in at least half a century.

According to Sportradar, last week produced 30 one-score games in conference play across the Bowl Subdivision. That is the most in any single week since at least 1973. Through Week 8, 128 conference games have been decided by eight or fewer points, the highest total at this point of a season since at least 1973 and 32 more than at the same time a year ago.

The average point differential in conference games is 13.9, also the lowest since at least 1973.

The Power Four conferences account for 69 of those one-score games so far. The ACC leads the way, with 20 of its 39 conference games (51%) finishing within one score. The Big Ten is close behind at 19 of 38 (50%). The SEC has seen 17 of 39 (44%) and the Big 12 has seen 13 of 33 (39%).

This week's schedule offers more chances for tight finishes. In the weekly picks, Miami is favored by a projected 38-21 over a North Carolina defense that faded in the fourth quarter against struggling Syracuse. Ohio State, playing on the West Coast without quarterback Julian Sayin for the first time, is picked to win 24-17 behind a defense seen as capable of carrying the load.

Georgia, coming off an open date after its upset loss to Auburn, has not lost consecutive games since the 2018 season and is picked to beat Florida 27-17. Notre Dame, which has had a couple of weeks to dwell on its loss at BYU, is expected to beat Navy 45-14. In Lubbock, Arizona carries a five-game win streak into a stadium where it has not won since 1935, and is picked to beat Texas Tech 34-24.

Some matchups are projected to be much closer. Iowa, which has beaten Wisconsin four straight times and outscored the Badgers 79-10 over the last two meetings, is picked to win 14-13 without injured running back Kamari Moulton, who is out for the rest of the season. Boise State is picked to edge its opponent 42-40 in a meeting of young coaches GJ Kinne and Spencer Danielson, with the game expected to come down to the last team to score.

Northwestern, led by first-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, visits Oregon, the program Kelly guided to a 46-7 record from 2009 to 2012. The pick is Northwestern 30-27.

Last week the picks went 10-7 straight up and 8-8-1 against the spread. For the season, they stand at 100-39 straight up and 68-69-2 against the spread. Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Houston are on byes.