Cowboys favored over slumping Colts on prediction markets ahead of Week 9 clash

The Dallas Cowboys visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in NFL Week 9, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium, and both teams arrive looking to put painful losses behind them. On the prediction market Kalshi, a Dallas victory was trading at $0.70 per share, a price that implies a 70 percent probability, while an Indianapolis win was priced at $0.32, or 32 percent.

Dallas (3-5) is coming off a 33-30 overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals in which it squandered a 13-point fourth-quarter lead. The Cowboys were outgained 467 to 261 in that game, and Arizona needed only eight plays to drive 80 yards for the tying score.

Indianapolis has dropped five straight games, most recently a 42-7 defeat at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts score just 20.1 points per game, 26th in the NFL, and allow 27.7 points per contest, the third-most in the league.

The Cowboys present the opposite profile. Dak Prescott and the offense have mostly held up their end, scoring 27.4 points per game, seventh-best in the league, but the defense gives up 26.6 points per game, seventh-most, and ranks last in the NFL in both total defense, at 385.4 yards allowed per game, and rushing defense, at 158.2 yards allowed per game.

Prescott sits fifth in the league in passing yards, leading an offense that features receivers CeeDee Lamb, third in the NFL with 709 receiving yards, and George Pickens, plus running back Javonte Williams. Williams was held to 56 yards on 24 carries against Arizona after rushing for 155 yards against Philadelphia in Week 7, and he could find more room against an Indianapolis defense surrendering 131.8 rushing yards per game, sixth-most in the league.

The Colts still have running back Jonathan Taylor, who has piled up 812 total yards and eight touchdowns, and he figures to be used heavily against this Dallas defense. Arizona's Tyler Allgeier broke two runs of more than 50 yards against the Cowboys in the Cardinals' Week 8 victory.

Quarterback Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,542 yards but has nine interceptions against only five touchdown passes. Jones was talked about as a potential MVP last season before a torn Achilles ended his year, and he has not looked the same so far this season, though he has thrown for at least 200 yards in four games. Protection has been an issue: Indianapolis has allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL and just traded away its best offensive lineman. The Colts also own the league's worst turnover differential at minus-11, while Dallas sits at minus-1.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has Dallas winning in 58 percent of its simulations and Indianapolis pulling out a home victory in 42 percent. The model's projected score has the Cowboys winning by four points, with the Colts losing by fewer than 5.5 points or winning outright in 53 percent of simulations.

Kalshi traders priced the Cowboys winning by more than 5.5 points at $0.51 for Yes and $0.50 for No. On the total, with the two defenses allowing almost 55 points per game combined, more than 51.5 points scored traded at $0.51 while fewer than 51.5 traded at $0.53. The SportsLine model projects 60 combined points, topping 51.5 in 65 percent of its simulations. Kalshi is a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.