Mid-decade redistricting efforts backfire for Republicans in key states

Republican lawmakers across several states executed a historic and aggressive campaign to redraw Congressional district maps mid-decade. The primary objective was to secure additional seats and maintain control of the House of Representatives. However, the results from the Tuesday night election suggest that these efforts may have inadvertently benefited their opponents. With Democrats on track to win between 251 and 268 seats, the GOP faces the reality of a dummymander, a term used when a party attempts to gerrymander but ends up strengthening the other side.

In Texas, the redistricting initiative was launched with the aim of gaining up to five seats for Republicans. Heading into the election, Republicans controlled 24 districts while Democrats held 13, with one vacant seat in a Republican-leaning area. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won 24 seats and Democrats had secured 14. This outcome meant that despite the new map, Republicans failed to expand their majority in the state, effectively turning Texas into a dummymander.

Ohio presents a similar scenario. A commission dominated by Republicans redrew the state's map to target specific Democratic incumbents, including Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Rep. Greg Landsman. The goal was to net two additional seats for the GOP. Before the election, Republicans held 10 seats and Democrats held five. On Tuesday, seven Democrats won their races, and CBS News estimates one more district is likely to go to the Democratic Party. With Republicans winning only seven districts, Ohio also qualifies as a dummymander.

North Carolina offers a more complex picture. Although the state has a Democratic governor, Republican lawmakers held a veto-proof majority and sought to remove Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Republicans entered the election with 10 seats compared to four for Democrats. As of Wednesday, four Democrats had won, and CBS News projected another five were likely to be Democratic. Republicans had not yet secured any wins, with one race leaning Republican and four remaining toss-ups. If Democrats capture any of the undecided races, North Carolina will be classified as a dummymander.

In Louisiana, lawmakers redrew districts following a Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. The state went into the election with four Republican-held seats and two Democratic-held seats. The new map included districts currently represented by Democrats. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won three districts and Democrats one. One district is a toss-up, and the 5th District is heading to a runoff. If Democrats win either of these contested areas, the state will be considered a dummymander.

Alabama and Tennessee also saw their redistricting efforts yield limited gains for Republicans. In Alabama, following the same Supreme Court decision, Democrats held two seats. Both incumbents won reelection on Tuesday, leaving Republicans with no net gain over their previous five seats. In Tennessee, lawmakers targeted the lone Democratic district in Nashville. Republicans entered the election with eight seats and Democrats with one. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won six seats, while two races, including the new 9th District in Nashville, were headed to runoffs. If Democrats win one or both of these, Tennessee will be a dummymander.

Florida, led by Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, attempted to gain up to four seats. Republicans controlled 20 districts before the election, while Democrats held eight. As of Wednesday, Republicans had won 16 seats and Democrats seven, with five districts estimated as toss-ups. If Democrats win any of these close races, Florida will join the list of states where redistricting backfired for the GOP.

Missouri provides a distinct case where the new map was challenged in court. A state court ruled the map could not be used without voter approval, and the Supreme Court blocked its use three times. Consequently, the 2022 boundaries were used for the election. Republicans started with six seats and Democrats with two. Democrats flipped another district, resulting in a final count of five for Republicans and three for Democrats.

In Indiana, President Trump had pushed lawmakers to pass a map that would eliminate the state's two Democratic seats. Despite this pressure, the legislature did not pass the new map. Using the same boundaries as previous cycles, Democrats retained their two seats and flipped a third, resulting in a 6-3 Republican majority.

South Carolina Republicans sought to remove Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn to achieve a 7-0 delegation. However, the redistricting effort did not succeed in dislodging him, and Clyburn won reelection. Two other races in the state remain toss-ups. In California, Democrats responded to Texas' moves with a ballot measure to gain five seats. Democrats entered the election with 43 seats and Republicans with nine. As of Wednesday, Democrats had won 42 districts, with six more likely to fall their way. Republicans won two, with two more likely. This represents a successful gerrymander for the Democratic Party.

Utah, Virginia, and Maryland completed the landscape of mid-decade redistricting. In Utah, a court rejected a Republican-favored map and selected a new one that created a Democratic-leaning district in Salt Lake City. Democrat Ben McAdams won that 1st District by 47 points. In Virginia, a ballot measure to favor Democrats was defeated, reinstating the 2021 map. Democrats won seven seats, Republicans two, and two races are toss-ups. In Maryland, a ballot initiative to remove constitutional constraints on redistricting passed. Democrats are now expected to redraw the map to target their sole Republican representative.