Less than two weeks into the 2026-27 NBA season, injuries and uneven performances have unsettled a championship race that initially appeared concentrated around three teams. The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and defending champion New York Knicks returned 14 of their 15 combined starters, but their early results have created opportunities for challengers across both conferences.
Oklahoma City began with 12-point victories over San Antonio and Denver before losing several key players. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace sustained potentially season-ending injuries in the same game, while Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle the next night. Chet Holmgren also tore the patellar tendon in his right knee and will miss at least two months. With four of their top six players unavailable, the Thunder lost by 24 points in Dallas and 21 in Houston, being outscored in every quarter of both games.
New York has started 2-4, relying on substantial comebacks against Detroit and Chicago for its only victories. San Antonio is 4-2 but has struggled against its strongest opponents and needed overtime to defeat an injury-depleted Utah team. There is considerable time for those teams to improve, although their early difficulties have already affected championship projections.
ESPN's Basketball Power Index gave Oklahoma City and San Antonio a combined 50% chance of winning the title before the season, with New York adding another 8%. Their combined probability has dropped to 38%, even with the model assuming Wallace and Holmgren return before the playoffs. Houston, meanwhile, has opened 5-1 with victories over both the Thunder and Spurs. Philadelphia, Detroit and Boston have a combined 16-3 record, giving those three Eastern Conference teams fewer total defeats than the Knicks alone.
Injuries have also affected other potential contenders. Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Haliburton, Kawhi Leonard, Alperen Sengun and Jaren Jackson Jr. are among the players who have already missed multiple games. The early absences include both soft tissue injuries and collision-related problems, such as those suffered by Williams and Wallace.
The MVP picture has become less settled as well. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, who have occupied the top two places in voting in each of the past three seasons, have started below their recent statistical standards. Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 16th among qualified players in player efficiency rating, while Jokic is 24th after leading the league in that measure for six consecutive seasons. Those rankings reflect only a small early-season sample.
Victor Wembanyama has played at an MVP level and is the betting favorite, but award eligibility could be consequential. He reached the minimum games requirement last season after failing to qualify in 2024-25. Another finish below 65 games could open the contest further, with Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson and 19-year-old Cooper Flagg among the possible challengers.
