Tarik Skubal is expected to lead baseball's offseason spending as free agency opens Monday, Nov. 2, at 5 p.m. ET, with teams facing a potentially compressed negotiating window before an anticipated Dec. 1 lockout. ESPN's reporting from executives, agents and other industry sources points to a busy November for available pitchers, even as uncertainty over the next collective bargaining agreement complicates trade discussions.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are the clearest contenders for Skubal, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan, who reported expectations of a contract well above $300 million and potentially exceeding $400 million. The Chicago Cubs also want him but doubt their willingness to meet his likely price. The San Diego Padres need a rotation leader with Michael King and Nick Pivetta entering free agency. ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reported that Skubal enjoyed his two and a half months with the Dodgers, although a return would depend on the financial offers.
The pitching market extends beyond its headline attraction. ESPN's Buster Olney identified King, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez and Tyler Mahle as starters who could receive offers allowing them to finish negotiations in November. Martinez strengthened his case during Tampa Bay's postseason run through his pitching, willingness to work on short rest and clubhouse influence. Jesse Rogers reported that Freddy Peralta and King helped their standing with postseason performances. Neither can receive a qualifying offer.
Offensive options appear more limited. Olney reported that Seiya Suzuki could hold considerable negotiating leverage because of the scarcity of right-handed power hitters. Gonzalez identified Japanese third baseman Teruaki Sato, 27, as another prominent possibility, with his posting expected in the coming days. Japanese pitchers Kaima Taira and Hiromi Itoh are also expected to attract substantial attention.
Trade activity could develop more slowly while clubs await clarity on baseball's financial rules. Olney reported that Seattle has explored using its pitching surplus to acquire a hitter. Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen is another potential trade candidate: his $20 million salary would take the Rays' payroll above its 2026 level without any other additions. Their World Series appearance leaves ownership weighing another run with Rasmussen against the return a trade might bring.
Other decisions involve Houston shortstop Jeremy Pena, who is one year from free agency, and Arizona's Ketel Marte, whose potential departure would require him to waive his no-trade clause. Passan also reported that the World Series champion Milwaukee Brewers would listen to offers for closer Trevor Megill, while William Contreras is expected to stay.
The Dodgers could concentrate on pursuing Skubal and replenishing a bullpen that has Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips entering free agency. Their entire starting lineup remains under contract. Across New York, ESPN's Jorge Castillo expects the Mets to act more aggressively than the Yankees, with a top starting pitcher a clear need. The Yankees face questions in their bullpen, at third base, second base and in center field.
The Cubs also face pressure to add pitching because of injuries and departing free agents, with Holmes and David Peterson possible returnees. Still, spending may be uneven across the league. Olney reported estimates that 12 to 18 clubs could largely stay out of November's market, although front offices might persuade ownership to approve additions before the expected lockout.
