Two Big Ten teams with identical 5-3 records meet Friday night when Nebraska visits Illinois. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET, and the Cornhuskers are 4.5-point road favorites in the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the over/under for total points has dropped to 49.5.
Nebraska opened the season 3-0 and came remarkably close to being 8-0 at this point. The Cornhuskers fell 20-17 to Indiana in a game they controlled into the fourth quarter, then lost 17-14 late to Oregon the following week. After a bye, Nebraska dropped a 17-10 decision to Washington, giving up two touchdowns in less than 30 seconds with under two minutes remaining.
The defense has been excellent for Nebraska this year, but the offense has not been up to the task in recent weeks. Anthony Colandrea is an elite dual-threat quarterback, though that has not translated into enough points of late.
Illinois, meanwhile, is 3-2 in Big Ten play and riding a three-game winning streak. The Fighting Illini shook off losses to Ohio State and Purdue by knocking off Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland in succession. The win over the Spartans required overtime, and Illinois managed only a 20-17 victory over a lackluster Maryland team playing under an interim head coach.
Against the spread, Nebraska has been one of the more reliable teams in the country at 6-2, while Illinois sits at 4-4. The Illini have leaned to the over at 5-3 this season, and the Cornhuskers are an even 4-4 to the over.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, entered Week 10 with an 80-77 record on all top-rated college football picks this season, producing strong returns for anyone following its selections.
Despite the recent offensive struggles on both sides, the model's best bet for this game is the over on a line of 50.5. Nebraska ranks 45th in scoring offense and 14th in scoring defense among the 138 FBS teams, while Illinois is 65th and 66th in those categories. The model has the over cashing in 60% of its simulations and projects 53 total points in this matchup.
