Traders on Kalshi put the likelihood of Democrats taking control of the U.S. Senate at 74% on Monday, Nov. 2, the party’s highest level since the contract began trading in 2024. The move extended a shift toward Democrats ahead of Tuesday’s election.
The increase followed a Sunday report from The New York Times about a poll conducted with Siena University. That survey showed Democrats ahead in several battleground states, bolstering the party’s potential route to a Senate majority. The latest trading placed Democrats ahead in a market that Republicans had dominated for much of its history.
Kalshi’s Senate contract centers on which party will control the chamber following the 2026 election. The Library of Congress will be used to verify the outcome after Tuesday’s vote. Monday’s 74% figure marked a high for Democrats across the period since the market opened two years earlier.
The balance between the parties has changed several times during that period. Their odds began moving closer together shortly after the United States and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Republican chances subsequently rose to 60% in July, before the direction of trading reversed in mid-September.
Contracts covering individual Senate contests also moved toward Democratic candidates during the latest 24-hour period. In Texas, Kalshi traders assigned Democrats a 74% chance of winning the Senate race, an increase from 68.4%. That put the party’s odds in the Texas market at the same level as its chances in the platform’s overall Senate control contract.
On Polymarket, the Democratic probability in Iowa’s Senate contest climbed from 42% to 50%. Kansas also saw a shift: the odds of Democrat Adam Hamilton defeating Republican Roger Marshall rose from 52% to 63%. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932.
Those market figures are distinct from the polling reported by The New York Times and Siena University. Betting and odds platforms do not follow the methods used in traditional political surveys, so their probabilities cannot serve as substitutes for political polls.
CNBC disclosed a commercial relationship with Kalshi alongside its reporting on the market movements. The arrangement includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
