US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that Washington's economic campaign against Iran has become so effective that a return to large-scale military operations is no longer required. Speaking after a meeting with Group of Seven foreign ministers in Paris, Rubio told allies that the pressure on Iran's economy is devastating enough to achieve US objectives without major combat. He emphasized that this approach is not a stalemate and warned that economic pressure would only intensify.
Rubio's comments align closely with President Donald Trump's recent statements. On Monday, Trump indicated that further strikes on Iran were quite unlikely. He noted on his Truth Social platform that US Gulf allies prefer to maintain the current status quo, which involves a blockade of Iranian ports. While Trump described positive momentum toward ending the conflict, he also stated that the US remains prepared for action should circumstances change.
However, Vice President JD Vance has offered a different perspective. Vance, who has been more critical of the war, favors reaching a deal with Iran. According to an informed source cited by Reuters, Vance believes a negotiation is possible, a view that contrasts with Trump's current stance that a deal is not achievable at this moment. Vance recently attributed the Republican Party's midterm defeat to public dissatisfaction with the conflict.
The administration appears to have settled on a middle path between full military escalation and immediate diplomatic resolution. Officials quoted by Axios report that key figures, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Jared Kushner, support this strategy of doubling down on pressure while avoiding full-scale war. This approach involves ramping up sanctions and blocking Iranian ports, with plans to also restrict land-based supply routes.
Despite this internal alignment on pressure tactics, concerns exist among US regional allies. Officials noted that Pakistan, Iraq, and Turkiye are worried that a prolonged US pressure campaign could negatively impact their own business interests. Meanwhile, Iranian negotiations have stalled for months as Tehran continues to target vessels it claims are violating transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has maintained its own set of demands for a resolution. In September, Tehran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a timeline it later suggested could be reduced to two days. Iran's conditions for the US include lifting sanctions imposed after the collapse of a June memorandum of understanding, reducing the US military presence in the region, reinstating oil waivers, and releasing frozen Iranian funds.
The recent midterm election results have significantly influenced the political calculus in Washington. Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, noted that the Republican defeat raised the political cost of further escalation. She argued that the new Democratic majority in Congress could make it difficult for Trump to continue the war, thereby pressuring him toward a diplomatic end.
Public opinion also reflects a desire to end the conflict. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday showed that 71 percent of Americans support congressional legislation to halt the war. This majority includes 93 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans. Both Trump and Vance have acknowledged that the war contributed to the Republican loss, with Trump specifically citing voter concerns over rising petrol prices.
On the ground, diplomatic efforts continue with mixed signals. The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Tuesday that Doha is working tirelessly on mediation and has received positive reactions from both sides. Trump echoed this sentiment after hosting Qatar's prime minister, describing Iran's current communication as polite. However, Rubio called Iran's demands unrealistic, though he noted the US remains open to diplomacy if Tehran's position shifts.
Iranian officials have responded with increased confidence in their rhetoric. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the war will only end through mutual respect, urging the US to meet Iran's conditions. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei claimed the US government was wrecked by the war and accused Washington of manufacturing fake news about imaginary talks. Rezaei also stated that Iran would not allow its enriched nuclear material to leave the country, ruling out a key US concession in potential nuclear talks.
