Texas Gov. Greg Abbott remained the favorite in prediction markets on Monday, November 2, but traders were giving Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa a substantially stronger chance of winning than they had during the summer. The contest is being watched for indications of a backlash against artificial intelligence data centers in Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections.
Abbott, a Republican campaigning for a fourth term, had a 60% chance of victory on Kalshi, according to traders on the platform. Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative, stood at 40%, up from 8% in mid-July. Much of that increase occurred in recent weeks, alongside a series of polls showing a closer contest between the two candidates.
A similar shift appeared on Polymarket, where Hinojosa's chances rose from a late-July low of 5% to 39% on Monday. The election contracts are settled using information from the Texas Secretary of State's office. Prediction markets and gambling platforms, however, do not follow the methods used in conventional political polling, and their odds should not be treated as substitutes for polls.
Hinojosa is trying to become Texas' first Democratic governor in more than three decades. Her campaign has challenged Abbott over his earlier backing of data center development, making the industry's expansion in the state a point of contention in the governor's race.
In November 2025, Abbott celebrated Google's planned $40 billion investment, which included three new data center campuses in Texas. At the time, he said the state would become the "epicenter of AI development." His position has since shifted as voter sentiment toward data centers has grown more negative over the past year.
Abbott ordered an audit in August of data centers seeking connections to the Texas power grid. In September, he stopped approvals for all permits related to data centers pending an audit of the existing waitlist, adding another restriction after his earlier promotion of the industry's growth.
Hinojosa's campaign website calls for an immediate moratorium on data centers. Under her proposal, that pause would remain in place until the legislature establishes guardrails for the industry.
The final day of in-person early voting in Texas was Friday, and more than 7.7 million Texans have already voted. CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi involving customer acquisition and a minority investment.
