Texas voters will choose between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico on November 3 in a Senate contest with consequences far beyond the state. The result could determine which party controls the chamber during the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency, as Democrats challenge a Republican stronghold.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, and Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024. Yet polling averages suggest Talarico has a chance of victory. Trump helped shape the contest by endorsing Paxton over longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican nomination race.
Paxton is campaigning on lower taxes, tougher enforcement against illegal immigration and support for Trump's agenda. Talarico, a former teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who entered the state legislature in 2019, wants to prevent health-care funding cuts, introduce congressional term limits and move more of the tax burden from middle-class households to corporations and wealthy taxpayers.
Paxton's record has become a central campaign issue. Texas attorney general since 2015, he faced a securities fraud indictment and was impeached by the Texas House over allegations that he misused his office to benefit a political donor. The fraud charge was later dropped following a plea deal, and the Texas Senate did not convict him. Talarico has attacked his ethics, while Paxton portrays the Democrat's positions as dangerously radical.
Advertising spending since the start of the Texas primaries has exceeded $500 million US, according to AdImpact, putting the contest on course to become the most expensive non-presidential campaign in American history. Election finance filings show that two political action committees funded by Elon Musk have directed more than $210 million US toward helping Paxton.
Musk-backed advertising has sought to mobilize Republicans through claims about Talarico's positions on gender transition procedures for children and penalties for parents who oppose them. Talarico has rejected those allegations as lies and argued that Musk is attempting to purchase political influence through the Senate race.
Early voting has offered Democrats an encouraging signal, though it does not establish how ballots were cast. During the first week, voters with a history of participating in Democratic primaries slightly outnumbered those who had participated in Republican primaries. Polling also suggests Hispanic voters in Texas have moved away from Republicans after shifting toward Trump in record numbers in 2024.
Immigration enforcement, household costs and religious values feature prominently in voters' accounts of their choices. In Edinburg, first-time voter and biology student Laysha Chavez cited family separations caused by ICE deportations. Paxton supporter Ruben Martinez emphasized fairness in immigration rules. Pastor Steve Ceh, one of 27 Christian leaders in Pastors for Paxton, said the candidate's policies aligned with Christian values despite his personal flaws.
Trump has visited four Texas cities since October 1 to rally support for Paxton. At a Corpus Christi appearance on Tuesday, he urged supporters to vote for the Republican, warning that his administration's achievements could quickly change if the party loses.
