A wave of bomb threats against passenger flights forced diversions, emergency landings and military escorts across European airspace this week, rattling travelers and piling pressure on airlines. Authorities have described the more than two dozen threats as malicious hoaxes, and no actual attacks have been carried out. But the incidents have exposed how vulnerable a tightly scheduled aviation network is to false alarms.
"This is really quite exceptional, I've never seen this before in my whole career," Wilfried Covent, head of aviation security firm Covent Consulting, told CNBC by phone. Bomb threats against flights and airports are not new, he said, but usually draw "maybe a single copycat, one or two max." He called the current wave "a systematic attack on airlines and airports."
The alarm spread beyond aviation on Friday, when an email to European broadcasters, claiming to be from the leader of the group behind the hoaxes, said bombs had been planted in their buildings, prompting evacuations. No explosives were found. "What happened this week is just a small part of what awaits Europe in the near future," the message said, according to Reuters, which could not verify the sender's identity, where the emails originated or any link to the flight threats.
The perpetrators have not been identified, though many security analysts suspect state-backed actors coordinating to disrupt public life in Europe. Covent said they know "the weakest point of aviation is targeting it in-flight": a threat against a specific airborne flight triggers international regulations that cannot be ignored, forcing a fast landing, evacuation and searches by specialist forces, even when a hoax is suspected. "The safety of passengers and crew is priority number one. The criminals know that," he said.
Responsibility for responding is split. National authorities lead threat assessment and security measures, coordinating with airport operators, airlines, law enforcement and air traffic control. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency and Britain's Civil Aviation Authority set wider safety rules, and the European Commission coordinates policy among member states. Joji Waites of the British Air Line Pilots Association said threats are graded red, amber or green, but never amber while a plane is airborne; if a threat is judged credible, the captain takes command and the priority is landing as soon and as safely as possible.
Each diversion also ripples through the network, disrupting the aircraft's next flight, crew working hours and connecting passengers. Philip Baum, a visiting professor of aviation security at Coventry University, told the Associated Press that a single diversion can cost an airline as much as $250,000. An EASA spokesperson said in emailed comments that while trained crews keep the immediate safety risk low, diversions disturb "a system designed for predictability and efficiency" and their rising number "places an additional strain on the system."
National governments are already reviewing their aviation regulations and frameworks, with discussions expected at the European and global level, said John Edwards, senior consultant at Gates Aviation in London. "Bomb threats to aviation have been going on for decades," he said. "What they'll need to be looking at is what's different."
Eric Schouten, a former Dutch intelligence liaison officer who now heads security consultancy Dyami, said changing procedures would take time, requiring balance among countries, airports, safety authorities and the European Union, with geopolitics also playing a role. "There is a high likelihood even more flights are going to be canceled or diverted," he said, warning that railways and highways could be targeted next. Any new measures, he added, will not be shared publicly for fear of tipping off those responsible.
Covent said assessment protocols would not change quickly, but if the threats continue indefinitely "something will need to change or you'd have to stop flying completely." Attack methods tend to evolve, he added, pointing to recent cyberattacks on supermarket fridges and blood banks. "As Europeans we need to be prepared," he said.
