Investigation Says Russian Satellites Tracked Targets Before Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia

Russian satellites appear to be assisting the Iran-aligned Houthis in striking Saudi Arabia's military and energy infrastructure, according to an investigation that threatens to further upend global energy markets amid the US war on Iran. The Associated Press reported this week that Geneva-based firm AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence examined 40 Houthi missile and drone attacks against the kingdom between July 1 and October 19 and found, in every case, a pattern of Russian government and military satellites observing the targeted areas both before and after the strikes.

Hostilities between the Houthis and the internationally recognised Yemeni government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, have been running since July and escalated in September when the rebel group seized full control of Yemen's Red Sea coast. In September, the Houthis also carried out a precision strike on pumping stations on the East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia's most important oil pipeline. AURORAH found Russian satellites had surveyed the region days in advance to gather intelligence about the pipeline.

Nawaf Obaid, founder of the firm, told Al Jazeera his team reconstructed Russia's military reconnaissance architecture, identifying individual satellites, calculating their orbital trajectories and correlating their activity with military developments across Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Yemen. The satellites identified include Bars-M military mapping satellites, Persona optical reconnaissance satellites, Lotos-S1 electronic intelligence satellites, Pion-NKS maritime reconnaissance systems and Kondor-FKA radar-imaging satellites, as well as the EKS/Tundra infrared early-warning constellation.

"The critical finding was not the presence of individual Russian satellites, but the sequencing and integration of their complementary intelligence capabilities," Obaid said. He added that "Russian military geospatial and signals intelligence has supported the Iranian-led intelligence architecture assisting Houthi operations in Yemen," and pointed to the pipeline attack, in which three pumping stations in the line's high-elevation western section were hit, as evidence the targets were selected with an understanding of engineering vulnerabilities.

Brussels-based military analyst Elijah Magnier said the findings do not necessarily show the whole picture, outlining four scenarios: Russia deliberately shared information with Iran, Iran obtained imagery through commercial channels, a third party acted as intermediary, or Iran acquired it independently. Obaid himself stressed the distinction between establishing a wider intelligence relationship and proving a particular satellite supplied targeting data for an individual strike. Still, three officials, including one from Saudi Arabia and a senior Houthi figure, told the AP that the Houthis and other Iranian allies have benefited from Russian intelligence and Chinese capabilities, and Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy Rayed Krimly said last week that Riyadh raises such matters regularly with Moscow and Beijing.

Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said reported Russian support would mark a shift in the trajectory of the conflict, moving it beyond its domestic dimensions. He noted Moscow has also taken positions at the United Nations Security Council opposing stronger international action against the Houthis. Russian officials have not commented on the findings.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree claimed on Friday that the group had struck the Ras Tanura oil refinery, an Aramco facility in Abqaiq, airports in Riyadh and Dammam, the Rabigh refinery and a military headquarters in Najran. There has been no independent corroboration of those specific claims, but Houthi attacks have caused multiple casualties. A strike on King Khalid International airport earlier this month killed at least 12 people and injured 300, according to Saudi officials, forcing the postponement of the kingdom's flagship investment conference until 2027. The airport reopened with flights resuming on Sunday, even as the Houthis warned travellers to avoid it, calling it a "military target". An October 21 attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam killed two people and wounded eight.

Analysts say the Houthis have transformed since seizing Sanaa and state arsenals in 2014, combining captured weapons, black market components and Iranian-origin missiles and drones such as the Palestine-2 and Toufan systems, though Iran officially denies supplying them. Magnier said Hezbollah and Iraqi armed groups have also contributed training and operational experience, helping explain why years of Saudi-led operations and American and Israeli strikes have failed to eliminate the group's military capability.

The Saudi-led coalition has retaliated with air attacks and reported intercepting a drone heading toward the Mecca region on Friday, ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and the eastern region on Thursday, and at least 10 ballistic missiles on Sunday. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki also said forces destroyed four ballistic missile launchers and five missile storage tunnels, targeting supply lines and fortifications inside Yemen. This month, Yemeni government forces launched the Operation Yemen Dawn counteroffensive aimed at recapturing Houthi-held territory.