President Donald Trump has informed senior advisers that he may pause new military strikes against Iran if Tehran and the Yemen-based Houthis do not launch new provocations. According to three people familiar with the discussions, the president has been alternating between threats of escalation and signals of de-escalation, leaving current and former officials uncertain about his final decision on resolving the conflict that began in February alongside Israel.
In recent meetings with national security advisers and after receiving intelligence briefings, Trump indicated a preference for holding off on further attacks. He also expressed sympathy for regional allies who have requested that the United States avoid returning to a full-scale war. On Thursday, Trump told sports broadcaster Stephen A. Smith that while he could end the conflict immediately, he is proceeding more slowly at the request of the nations he aims to protect.
The war has significantly increased global fuel prices and has become a source of political friction. US voters handed control of Congress to the Democrats in last week's midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted shortly before the November 3 elections showed that 55% of Americans believed the war was not worth the cost. Vice President JD Vance cited the conflict as a key reason for the Republican loss in Congress.
A White House official stated that Trump, as Commander-in-Chief, is the sole decision-maker and is ensuring American interests are protected. The official emphasized that the United States is in a strong position due to its control of the Strait of Hormuz and the collapsing Iranian economy. The CIA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to requests for comment.
Over the past two weeks, Trump sought opinions from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Both leaders urged him to avoid resuming attacks on Iran, according to a senior US official. Trump made no firm commitment either way during these calls. On October 31, Trump told bin Salman he planned to attack after the elections, but the crown prince argued that economic sanctions were already effective. The Saudi Foreign Ministry did not respond to comment.
Trump has spoken with Erdogan three times since October 28. An official readout from their November 7 call highlighted the need to end tensions between Iran and the US. US intelligence agencies have assessed that the naval blockade and economic sanctions are damaging the Iranian economy and will continue to pressure Tehran. The US military is also working to prevent sanctioned material from entering Iran by land or through the Caspian Sea.
Despite the pause in planning, the US military remains ready to escalate if necessary. A third aircraft carrier is moving into the Middle East in the coming days to replace one of the two currently in the region. All three carriers could remain if needed. Trump has also been briefed on potential strikes to Iran's underground nuclear facilities, though it remains unclear if further attacks would be successful given previous strikes.
Intelligence officials note that renewed strikes would not significantly change Iran's negotiation demands. Trump was also informed that some US weapon stockpiles have dropped to worrying levels. Reports in August indicated that the US had used nearly all of its long-range precision munitions, which have not been replenished. The White House official countered that the military has enough munitions to meet all strategic goals.
Israeli officials have continued to lobby the administration for another military campaign. This week, Trump signaled that the US has achieved what it could from negotiations. In a social media post on Thursday, he stated that the US does not need a deal with Iran because it has secured their money and control of their Strait.
