Negotiators from the United States, Iran, and mediating Qatar have expressed significant concern that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might undermine ongoing talks to end the conflict between Tehran and Washington. Two US government officials familiar with the matter stated this week that all parties involved fear Netanyahu will authorize a new military operation against Iran. Such a move would likely trigger a resumption of intensive military operations, which have largely subsided since April.
The officials noted that the current negotiating teams are composed largely of government figures who oppose a return to war. This stands in contrast to hardliners in both Washington and Tehran, who are less fearful of a renewed conflict. President Donald Trump has fluctuated in his preferences, oscillating between favoring a resumption of strikes and seeking a final deal. Currently, however, the administration appears to prefer the status quo, maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports while intensifying economic sanctions.
Supporters of this strategy within the administration believe that sustained pressure will force Iran to capitulate to American demands regarding its nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. One official pointed to Tehran’s recent willingness to discuss its nuclear program with Qatari mediators, a shift from its previous refusal, as evidence that economic pressure is beginning to work.
Despite these signs, the current strategy could take months to succeed. In the interim, American consumers are facing higher fuel prices at the pump due to the heightened risk for vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. There is also no guarantee that Iran will not escalate its response as US economic pressure tightens.
A second official highlighted that Iran remains firmly opposed to US demands for its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium to be transferred out of the country. Instead, Tehran is only willing to discuss down-blending the nuclear material in the presence of United Nations inspectors. Iran is also demanding billions of dollars in sanctions relief and reparations for infrastructure destroyed during the war launched by the US and Israel in February, a demand the US considers a nonstarter.
Further complicating matters, Tehran wants to charge tolls for certain vessels, including military ships, passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a proposal the US rejects. The official added that Iran feels emboldened by the results of the US midterm elections, which granted Democrats commanding control over both houses of Congress. Trump has acknowledged that rising energy prices fueled by the war played a major role in the Republican losses.
Top Democratic lawmakers are pledging to use their electoral boost to unilaterally force an end to the conflict when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3. Despite these significant gaps between the sides, the first official maintained that a final deal, or at least an interim agreement, remained possible.
However, the second official said such hopes were dashed when Trump publicly ordered Vice President JD Vance to stop dealing with the file. Vance had been one of the administration’s leading advocates for a diplomatic accord. He was particularly concerned by Netanyahu’s near-daily calls to Trump urging a resumption of the war. Vance felt that the Israeli prime minister had repeatedly given bad advice and made wrong predictions about how the war would play out.
