A fresh political crisis appears to be brewing in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and analysts warn the turmoil could play into Iran's hands. While internal division has marked the region for decades, the stakes are higher now: Iran continues to strike the area with drones and missiles and has pressed Baghdad to expel Kurdish Iranian opposition groups based there. With the United States having withdrawn its forces from Iraq on September 30, Tehran may sense an opening.
Rudaw, a media outlet based in Erbil, the seat of the Kurdistan Regional Government, reported that Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader Bafel Talabani announced on Thursday that his party would pull out of the KRG cabinet. The move came in protest at the reactivation of the Kurdistan Parliament without PUK participation, with the party declaring the legislature illegitimate.
"This government has failed. Therefore, the first decision of the PUK leadership following this thing [parliament reactivation] is that we will immediately withdraw from this failed government, which calls itself the government of Kurdistan," Talabani said in a video message. He added that his party would use all its strength to meet the needs of people in areas where it is dominant, including Sulaimani and Halabja.
Tensions between Talabani's PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, which leads the KRG, are nothing new. In 2017, when Iraqi federal forces moved against the Kurds in Kirkuk, PUK forces withdrew from the city, and it was widely believed at the time that the party had reached an understanding with Iran and Baghdad. The PUK, whose stronghold is Sulimaniyah, has long been viewed as closer to Tehran both geographically and politically.
According to Rudaw, Talabani's announcement followed a meeting of the PUK leadership earlier on Thursday. It came a day after the rival KDP led an effort to reconvene parliament, backed by several minority representatives, smaller parties and lawmakers who broke with their own parties, including three PUK members.
The Wednesday session in Erbil was attended by 52 lawmakers, just above the 51-member quorum required in the 100-seat legislature. Those present unanimously elected KDP politician Vala Farid as parliament speaker, Christian quota representative Rami Noori as deputy speaker and Turkmen quota representative Muna Qahwachi as secretary. The KDP holds 39 seats in the chamber, while the PUK holds 23.
Shafaq News, an Iraqi outlet, published an analysis examining the strain now placed on KRG President Nechirvan Barzani's "strategic patience," noting that his pragmatic style has often served as a trusted channel for dialogue and for untangling political disputes. The analysis argued, however, that the same patience that has safeguarded the region's external balances could end up prolonging domestic crises if it amounts to de-escalation without reform. It said the constraints on Barzani cannot be separated from the shared responsibility of the parties governing the region, and that the real question is whether those parties are willing to unify institutions and decision-making centers and address the root causes of crises rather than merely manage them. In effect, efforts to keep all sides satisfied may have allowed problems to fester.
Against this backdrop, US Envoy to Iraq and Syria Tom Barrack visited Baghdad on November 5 for meetings with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Barrack described the Middle East as a Rubik's Cube in which every side touches every other, saying no single country or outside power can solve it alone and that it comes together only when the nations of the region turn the pieces themselves. He praised al-Zaidi, saying Iraq is "choosing sovereignty over dependency, investment over stagnation, and partnership over proxy," and added that the United States is proud to stand with Iraq by deepening economic and commercial ties.
