Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party appeared to lead Israel’s October 27 election, but preliminary results left his political future uncertain. With neither his allies nor his opponents having a clear path to forming a government, negotiations between parties will determine who becomes prime minister and which policies the next administration pursues.
As counting continued Wednesday, Likud was projected to secure about 26 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, equivalent to 21.7% of parliament. Netanyahu’s traditional right-wing and religious allies were projected to hold 53 seats, eight below a majority. A four-party opposition bloc was expected to take 48 seats, with two Arab-led lists projected to receive a combined 19.
Those figures would give the opposition and Arab parties enough parliamentary seats to replace Netanyahu if they worked together. However, some opposition leaders have firmly ruled out joining a government with Arab parties or depending on their support. The potential majority therefore faces political obstacles that seat totals alone cannot resolve.
Israel’s electoral system makes coalition negotiations central to the formation of a government. Voters choose party lists, with parliamentary seats allocated roughly in proportion to each list’s national vote share once it clears a threshold of 3.25% of valid ballots. For the 2026 election, 38 lists were approved and one withdrew before voting. Preliminary results suggested that 11 would gain representation.
Unlike an American president, Israel’s prime minister is not elected separately by voters. A government needs sufficient parliamentary backing to take office and remain in power, usually through a coalition controlling at least 61 seats. Minority governments can sometimes survive with outside support. Smaller parties can consequently wield substantial influence, seeking policy concessions or control of ministries in exchange for helping a coalition reach a majority.
Such bargaining can produce governments whose ministers hold sharply different views. Parties may negotiate commitments on religious education, military conscription, housing, economic policy or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Cabinet appointments are also part of those talks, allowing parties with different political philosophies to oversee separate ministries under an agreed framework for governing.
The 2021 election illustrated how the largest party can lose power. Likud won 30 seats and Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid secured 17, but Naftali Bennett became prime minister despite his right-wing Yamina party winning only seven. Bennett and Lapid assembled an eight-party coalition encompassing right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties, alongside the Islamist Arab party Ra’am. Their shared objective was replacing Netanyahu, who became opposition leader.
Under that agreement, Lapid served as foreign minister and alternate prime minister, with plans for him and Bennett to exchange roles. Ra’am obtained policy commitments and funding for Arab communities without receiving Cabinet posts. Internal disagreements brought down the coalition after about a year, and Netanyahu returned to power following the November 2022 election. The latest preliminary results again leave the premiership dependent on whether rival parties can reach an agreement that commands enough parliamentary support.
