Democratic Senate candidates hold polling advantages in seven battleground states surveyed by The New York Times and Siena, putting several Republican-held seats in contention shortly before the midterm elections. Released Sunday, the poll shows Democratic leads in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, a nearly even contest in Iowa and a double-digit Democratic advantage in Michigan.
The results point to a possible path to a Democratic Senate majority, according to Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute. He cautioned, however, that several contests fall within the survey's margin of error, leaving either party with a chance to control the chamber. To secure a majority, Democrats need to retain their current seats and gain at least four now held by Republicans.
Two of the Democratic advantages come in states with long Republican Senate winning streaks. Texas last elected a Democratic senator in 1988, while Kansas has not done so since 1932. Among likely Texas voters, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50% to 43%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has 49% support, compared with 44% for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44%. Maine Democrat Troy Jackson has a 51% to 45% advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The Alaska contest is tighter, with former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola at 48% and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan at 46%.
Iowa is effectively tied: Democrat Josh Turek has 48% support, narrowly ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson's 47%. Michigan, the only state surveyed where Democrats hold the Senate seat at stake, has the widest gap. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53% to 42%.
The findings also indicate dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and Republicans on economic issues. Across the seven states, 38% of likely voters approve of Trump's performance, according to the Times, although he won five of those states by double-digit margins in 2024. Voters favor Democrats over Republicans by nine points on handling the cost of living, and Democratic Senate candidates lead on that issue in each state surveyed.
Democrats also lead among independent voters in all seven states. Their candidates gained ground in six states compared with Times/Siena polling in September, with Alaska the exception. Republicans nevertheless have some favorable indicators: voters who settled on a candidate within the past month favored the party by nine points. The Times also highlighted Collins' 2020 victory, when she won comfortably despite trailing in every poll.
The surveys were conducted among likely voters from Oct. 23 through Nov. 1. State margins of sampling error range from plus or minus 3.4 percentage points in Texas to plus or minus 5 points in Alaska, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding several of the contests.
