Trade uncertainty is expected to feature prominently as leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations gather in Manila for their annual summit. The meetings, running from Sunday through Tuesday, coincide with an Asia Pacific trip by US President Donald Trump that will draw attention to his administration’s disruption of trade and traditional alliances.
Trump is due to make a brief stop in Manila on Tuesday to meet Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr before travelling to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China. There, he is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping face to face for the fourth time in just over a year. The White House has also confirmed that Trump, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold their first trilateral talks.
The visit will be Trump’s second to Southeast Asia since returning to office, following his attendance at the 2025 ASEAN summit in Malaysia. In July, his administration announced tariffs ranging from 10 to 12.5 percent after the US Supreme Court struck down his higher reciprocal tariffs in February. The Office of the US Trade Representative said the new duties targeted 60 trading partners over alleged failures to tackle forced labour. Most Southeast Asian economies were among those affected.
Further US investigations into alleged national security risks and excess manufacturing could bring additional tariffs. So far, however, Southeast Asia has avoided much of the damage from Trump’s trade measures, partly because billions of dollars in Chinese trade have been redirected through the region. US imports from ASEAN increased by more than 29 percent to $453.6 billion in 2025, pushing the US trade deficit with the bloc to $327.4 billion, according to the US trade representative’s office.
Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at Singapore’s Hinrich Foundation, told Al Jazeera that the export gains do not guarantee continued resilience. She said electronics shipments, which are largely exempt from tariffs, account for much of the increase. Those exports are closely connected to the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, leaving ASEAN exposed if that investment falters.
Summit organisers have released few agenda details, but an anticipated outcome is the signing of the Digital Economy Framework Agreement. Launched in 2023, the initiative seeks to simplify cross-border data transfers and electronic payments. It has been presented as a step towards an ASEAN digital economy valued at $2 trillion by 2030.
Jayant Menon, a senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told Al Jazeera that leaders would be watching for Trump’s next trade decisions. He said additional sectoral tariffs or export controls could alter the limited effect that recent duties have had on ASEAN’s export competitiveness. Despite Republicans losing both houses of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, Menon said Trump retains considerable independent authority over trade policy and could intensify his approach.
Phar Kim Beng, a professor of ASEAN studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia, expects renewed appeals for more trade within the bloc, but few substantial measures. He told Al Jazeera that intraregional trade remains at 23 percent despite decades of liberalisation, compared with levels exceeding 67 percent in the European Union. He expects leaders to keep emphasising trade growth without announcing significant steps to achieve it.
